Prediction: Earnings Growth Will Push Coca-Cola Stock to $100 Before 2028
Key Points
Coca-Cola stock is up about 26% in 2026, a few dollars under the record close it set in August.
Management expects adjusted earnings per share to rise 9% to 10% this year, with about 3 points from currency.
Unit case volume moved from a 1% drop to 5% growth in the last year.
As I write, Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) stock would need to climb about 14% from roughly $88 to hit $100 a share. The shares have already risen about 26% this year, and they closed at a record of almost $92 in late August.
With the end of 2027 about 15 months away, the climb works out to about 11% a year in price alone. A dividend yielding about 2.4% at the stock's current price comes on top of that.
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For a company whose organic revenue (sales growth excluding currency moves, acquisitions, and divestitures) rose 5% last year, 11% a year is arguably a fast pace. But I think the stock can get there, if earnings keep growing at their recent rate.
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Where did this year's rise come from?
Mainly from a higher valuation. Coca-Cola stock closed 2025 around $70. Against its 2025 non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings per share of $3.00, that was about 23 times earnings. Now, the stock trades at about 27 times adjusted earnings, using the $3.23 per share over its past four quarters.
In other words, adjusted earnings per share grew around 8% while the stock gained 26%. Most of the run-up comes from a higher price on every dollar of Coca-Cola's earnings, and I wouldn't count on another year like that.
So earnings have to carry most of the climb to $100. Management expects 2026 adjusted earnings per share of around $3.27 to $3.30, up 9% to 10%. But currency accounts for around 3 points of it. Leaving out currency and the effect of acquisitions and divestitures, the company expects growth of 7% to 8%.
If adjusted earnings per share rises around 7.5% again in 2027, it'd be near $3.53. If shares still fetch 27 times adjusted earnings then, that points to a stock price of around $96 by the end of 2027. Hitting $100 would take about 28 times adjusted earnings -- or a year of faster growth.
Coca-Cola is selling more drinks
Showing how the mix of its growth has changed, Coca-Cola's unit case volume (the amount of its drinks sold in its system) dropped 1% from the year before in the second quarter of 2025. Since then, volume growth has sped up, to 1% in both the third and fourth quarters of 2025, then 3% to start 2026 and 5% in the latest quarter.
Price/mix (the combined impact of price moves and shifts in what drinks and packages sell, and where) went the other way. It slowed from 6% growth in mid-2025 to 2% in this year's second quarter. And organic revenue still rose 6% in the quarter.
I think volume-led growth is the healthier kind, since it doesn't rely on consumers absorbing ever-higher prices.
"[W]e said that this would be a year that if we did everything right, we would see volume and price/mix more in tandem," CEO Henrique Braun said on Coca-Cola's second-quarter earnings call. "And that's exactly what we're seeing."
Granted, management also credited the FIFA World Cup, favorable weather in some markets, and an easy comparison, leaving two-year average volume growth at 2%. But profitability rose, too. Coca-Cola's adjusted operating margin widened to 35.6% from 34.7% a year before.
What does Oct. 27 have to show?
Coca-Cola releases third-quarter results before the opening bell on Tuesday, Oct. 27. Its full-year outlook points to adjusted earnings per share of about $1.44 to $1.47 for the second half, up only about 3% to 5%, partly because the fourth quarter has six fewer days than last year.
Volume is the figure I'd track most closely. Against 1% growth in the year-ago quarter, volume growth of roughly 3% would hold the two-year pace near 2%.
Price/mix counts, too. PepsiCo cut its 2026 outlook for adjusted, currency-neutral earnings-per-share growth to 1% to 2% on Thursday, and said it's lining up more cost cuts partly to offset rising input cost inflation. Coca-Cola noted higher input costs in its second quarter as well, so price/mix staying around 2% could show it can still price through them.
Will Coca-Cola stock clear $100 before 2028? I think so. If volume keeps rising near its two-year pace and pricing holds, earnings growth around 8% a year could carry the stock to the mid-$90s. And a stock that already reached $92 in August needs just a slightly higher valuation on top of that.
But this is a prediction about earnings growth more than a bargain price. At around 25 times projected 2027 earnings, shares already assume steady growth, and one or two quarters of slower volume could easily push $100 to 2028.
Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.