Komo: Preliminary sales data for the Mainland's National Day Golden Week property market is encouraging, and seashell-W (02423), etc. are preferred

The Zhitong Finance App learned that J.P. Morgan Chase released a research report saying that the preliminary sales data for National Day Golden Week in the mainland housing market is encouraging. Real-time second-hand transactions in 26 cities increased 59% year over year, while 44 cities saw a 16% year-on-year increase, and new home subscriptions increased 15% year over year; the bank believes that the real problem is sustainability after one to two months; China Resources Land (01109), China Overseas Development (00688), and Seashell-W (02423).

The bank said that the relevant performance was not surprising, because the first week after the mortgage subsidy policy came into effect on October 1, it was an immediate reaction after the implementation of the national policy. The bank is generally not overexcited about policy-driven sales improvements (which are often short-lived in history), and would rather see organic improvements like the second quarter of 2026. After initial communication with leading state-owned enterprise developers, the situation was mixed. Some indicated “good growth,” while others indicated that the market was still “weak.”

On October 8, Chinese developer stocks rose 1% (the Hang Seng Index fell 1.4%), mainly driven by state-owned enterprises. China Overseas Development rose 4% and China Resources Land rose 3%; however, most of the struggling developers fell. The bank believes that this differentiation shows that the market rewards short-term data improvements (state-owned enterprises outperform) rather than betting policies (policies have already been implemented, resulting in profit returns).

In terms of retail sales in mainland China, same-store sales of major leaseholders increased by 5% to 10% year-on-year, better than market concerns. The bank maintained a positive view of China Resources Vientiane Life (01209). In terms of retail sales in Hong Kong, visitors to Hong Kong from the Mainland rose 9% year on year (overall increase of 6%). Tenant sales of many retailers recorded double digit year-on-year increases, or benefited from the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar, which is a positive interpretation of Jiulong Cang Real Estate (01997).