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Amprius Technologies (AMPX) Could Be 58% Undervalued As $150 Million Defense Deals Recast Valuation

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Amprius Technologies (AMPX) just secured a pair of linked U.S. defense deals worth up to a combined $150 million, positioning its silicon anode batteries squarely inside the drone supply chain investors watch closely.

That defense exposure comes after a choppy stretch for Amprius Technologies’ stock, with a 30-day share price return down 9.62% and a 90-day share price return down 18.56%. At the same time, the year-to-date share price return is up 7.44% and the three-year total shareholder return sits at roughly 2.5x. This hints that sentiment has cooled recently despite a stronger long-run record and may now be reacting to the perceived growth potential and risk profile implied by these new government-backed battery programs.

Scan 43 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks is already positioned to supply critical hardware and energy storage for the same defense and drone electrification trend that is now putting Amprius Technologies in focus.

Amprius Technologies now carries fresh government contracts on one side and a cooling share price on the other. Is the recent pullback mostly about the business, or mostly about sentiment, and what does the current valuation imply?

Most Popular Narrative: 58% Undervalued

On the numbers used in the most followed narrative, Amprius Technologies screens as materially cheaper than its implied fair value of $22.13 against a last close of $9.39. This puts a lot of weight on how its government work, drone exposure, and manufacturing scale-up play out.

Ongoing investment in automation and manufacturing capacity (supported by government contracts like the $10.5M Defense Innovation Unit award) positions Amprius to capture a larger share of future high-margin opportunities in defense and critical infrastructure, enhancing both revenue visibility and earnings stability.

See why 108 investors see Amprius Technologies as 58% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $22.13 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the whole Amprius Technologies story leans heavily on aviation and drone demand, and any stumble in scaling silicon anode production could quickly challenge that bullish setup.

Find out about the key risks to this Amprius Technologies narrative.

Another View: What Multiples Say About Amprius Technologies

There is a catch. While the SWS model points to Amprius Technologies trading well below a fair value estimate, the stock changes hands at a P/S of 12.6x compared with 8.3x for peers and 1.9x for the broader US Electrical industry. The fair ratio sits at 4.7x, so anyone leaning on this metric has to ask whether current pricing already bakes in a lot of success and limits the margin of safety.

That gap between today’s sales multiple and the 4.7x fair ratio leaves room for the market to move either toward the story in the narrative or toward the more restrained signal in the multiples. This raises a simple question for investors following Amprius Technologies: Which side of that spread looks more realistic to you right now, and how much downside are you willing to tolerate if sentiment swings back toward the fair ratio.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NYSE:AMPX P/S Ratio as at Oct 2026
NYSE:AMPX P/S Ratio as at Oct 2026

Next Steps

Views on Amprius Technologies are clearly split, and the mix of flagged risks and potential upsides may evolve regardless of your timing. Take a closer look at the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Amprius Technologies?

If you want a clearer view of what else could deserve space in your watchlist, use the Simply Wall Street Screener to pressure test your next moves.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.