IDC: Global PC shipments fell 20.1% year-on-year in the third quarter due to supply-side overdraft demand from manufacturers and supply restrictions

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to the latest preliminary data released by the International Data Corporation (IDC), global PC shipments in the third quarter of 2026 were 62.7 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.1%. This is the second consecutive quarter of decline, and the decline was significantly greater than the 3.8% decline in the second quarter. On a month-on-month basis, shipments in the third quarter were also 9.1% less, and the “third quarter was better than the second quarter” of previous years did not appear this time. The supply side has not abated. Coupled with the fact that manufacturers and channel vendors concentrated on stocking up before the price increase earlier this year, demand was consumed ahead of schedule, and there was little demand left to be released by the third quarter.

What really happened in the third quarter?

In this quarter, channel providers are mainly digesting inventory formed from large purchases in the previous quarter. Affected by this, shipments in the third quarter did not show a seasonal recovery in previous years.

Jitesh Ubrani, IDC's director of consumer equipment research, said, “This was the result of intensive advance preparation in the first half of the year. Manufacturers and channel vendors purchased large quantities of goods at the beginning of the year in order to have enough goods in time for price increases. As a result, the seasonal pattern of the third quarter was usually higher than the second quarter was disrupted. What channel vendors are worried about now is that high prices are already suppressing demand, yet there is still a lot of inventory. There may be a wave of promotions next, allowing consumers to get some benefits in the short term, but the price is unlikely to return to the level of a year ago, and the overall price will still be high. What is even more troublesome is that the macro environment is still deteriorating, and it is not ruled out that it will be more serious in the next few quarters before there is a chance to recover.”

Overview of the global PC market in Q3 2026

Total shipments: 62.7 million units (down 20.1% year on year, down 9.1% from Q2 2026)

The main reason for the decline: manufacturers and channel providers prepare goods early in the early stages, and continued supply problems

Major constraints: supply issues, rising prices, deteriorating macroeconomic environment

Leading manufacturers: Lenovo, HP, Dell, Apple, Asus

Why has the market changed?

Continued supply restrictions limited the manufacturer's ability to ship, and early preparation overdrafted shipments in the second half of the year. Manufacturers and channel vendors purchased before price increases, which boosted shipments at the beginning of the year and left insufficient demand in the third quarter. The result was a break in seasonal rules: the third quarter was generally higher than the second quarter, but this year it was lower than the second quarter. What is IDC's judgment on the market prospects?

Channel companies' concerns about weak demand at high inventories and high prices may prompt them to launch promotions in the short term, but prices will still be far higher than a year ago. The greater risk comes from the macro environment: the macro environment has deteriorated since the last quarter, the weak economic background may further depress demand, and the outlook for the rest of 2026 and 2027 may be even less optimistic. Vendor ranking and market share

The impact on each manufacturer was not the same. Lenovo, HP, and Dell all saw higher declines than the overall market, losing 4.2 percentage points in total market share, probably because they were being affected by early stock preparation earlier this year.

Frequently asked questions

Why are PC shipments declining during the traditional peak season?

Manufacturers and channel providers concentrated on stocking up on price increases earlier this year, draining demand for the third quarter ahead of schedule. Coupled with continued supply restrictions, this quarter failed to usher in the previous seasonal recovery, and shipments were lower than in the second quarter and the same period last year.

Will PC prices drop?

There will only be a slight and brief drop. Channel vendors are concerned about high inventory and low demand, so they may launch promotions. However, prices are expected to remain high and far above the same period last year.

What are the next risks likely to affect the market?

The deteriorating macroeconomic environment is a major concern. A weakening economy is likely to further weaken demand, while prices remain high, supply is still limited, and the market outlook for the rest of 2026 may deteriorate further.