Citi lowered Novo Nordisk's target price from DKK 310 to DKK 296 and maintained a “neutral” rating, mainly because the company's latest capital market daily guidelines show that profit margins will be “generally stable” by 2030, which means there is limited room for further expansion of medium- to long-term profit margins. Affected by the increase in R&D investment, Citi lowered Novo Nordisk's adjusted operating profit forecast by 2% to 4%, and lowered the average annual earnings growth rate forecast per share from 12% to 9% from 2027 to 2030; the valuation assumption was also lowered from 15 times to 14 times the expected price-earnings ratio in 2027. On the other hand, Citi raised the company's profit forecast for 2026 and 2027, mainly based on the improved sales prospects of Wegovy Oral Medicine in markets outside the US and Ozempic's prescription trend in the US, and raised the two-year sales forecast by 3% and 1%, respectively, and the adjusted operating profit forecast by 2% to 3%. Citi also raised its forecast for peak sales of Wegovy oral medications from $10 billion to $13 billion. Regarding the third-quarter results announced on November 4, Citi expects revenue of DKK 73.5 billion, which is about 1% higher than the market's consensus forecast. Among them, Wegovy's sales of oral medicines are expected to be DKK 5.3 billion, higher than the market's expectations of DKK 4.5 billion, but higher R&D investment will continue to suppress profit margins. The agency also pointed out that uncertain pricing prospects for injectable Wegovy and long-term competitive pressure from competitors such as Eli Lilly, Roche, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca may still limit investor sentiment.

Zhitongcaijing · 2d ago
Citi lowered Novo Nordisk's target price from DKK 310 to DKK 296 and maintained a “neutral” rating, mainly because the company's latest capital market daily guidelines show that profit margins will be “generally stable” by 2030, which means there is limited room for further expansion of medium- to long-term profit margins. Affected by the increase in R&D investment, Citi lowered Novo Nordisk's adjusted operating profit forecast by 2% to 4%, and lowered the average annual earnings growth forecast per share from 12% to 9% from 2027 to 2030; the valuation assumption was also lowered from 15 times to 14 times the expected price-earnings ratio in 2027. On the other hand, Citi raised the company's profit forecast for 2026 and 2027, mainly based on the improved sales prospects of Wegovy Oral Medicine in markets outside the US and Ozempic's prescription trend in the US, and raised the two-year sales forecast by 3% and 1%, respectively, and the adjusted operating profit forecast by 2% to 3%. Citi also raised its forecast for peak sales of Wegovy oral medications from $10 billion to $13 billion. Regarding the third-quarter results announced on November 4, Citi expects revenue of DKK 73.5 billion, which is about 1% higher than the market's consensus forecast. Among them, Wegovy's sales of oral medicines are expected to be DKK 5.3 billion, higher than the market's expectations of DKK 4.5 billion, but higher R&D investment will continue to suppress profit margins. The agency also pointed out that uncertain pricing prospects for injectable Wegovy and long-term competitive pressure from competitors such as Eli Lilly, Roche, Pfizer, and AstraZeneca may still limit investor sentiment.