RBC Notes Interest Rate Tailwinds for ING Ahead of Q3 Results

01:45 AM EDT, 10/09/2026 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital Markets sees ING Groep (INGA.AS) benefiting from higher interest rates ahead of the Dutch lender's third-quarter results due on Oct. 29. "The move higher in rates is positive also as deposit competition seems to remain limited in NL, for now, and in Germany ING runs more targeted campaigns. We move our liability margin estimate to 111bp in Q3 and 109bp in 2026. Largely due to seasonality and the end of campaigns we forecast deposit volume to grow slower in Q3 than Q2 but this might be optimistic depending on corporate deposit trends. We expect lending margins to remain at the Q2 level of 124bp for the rest of the year reflecting some mortgage competition in the Netherlands and mix changes," the research firm said Thursday. Analysts expect ING to keep costs in line with its outlook, even as inflationary pressures are expected to drive cost growth. They also expect the lender's asset quality to "remain benign." RBC believes improved earnings and capital optimization support shareholder distributions, with analysts forecasting 1.25 billion euros in share buybacks and 250 million euros in special dividends for the third quarter. "A strategic update providing more detail on company-specific drivers for further return improvement will be helpful for the ING investment case," the note said. Reflecting higher interest rates at "low" marginal costs, RBC upgraded its ING price target to 33 euros from 32 euros, with a sector perform rating. Analysts also lifted their full-year 2027 and 2028 EPS forecasts by 3%.