AlphaValue/Baader Europe Updates EPS Forecasts for BP Amid Price Deck Changes

MT Newswires · 2d ago
12:37 AM EDT, 10/09/2026 (MT Newswires) -- AlphaValue/Baader Europe revised its EPS estimates for BP (BP.L) as analysts updated their commodity price deck and refining projections. "Our Brent price deck explains part of the move. Brent rises to USD 91.5/bbl in 2026 from USD 87/bbl and to USD 78/bbl in 2027 from USD 72/bbl, with 2028 unchanged at USD 65/bbl. European gas moves to EUR 57/MWh, EUR 53/MWh and EUR 45/MWh, from EUR 55/MWh, EUR 47/MWh and EUR 42/MWh," according to a Thursday note. After the British oil major's "strong" first-half delivery, the research firm tweaked its refining margin assumptions to $24 per barrel in full-year 2026, $18/bbl in 2027, and $14.5/bbl in 2028. Accordingly, analysts raised their adjusted EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to $1.17 and $0.81, respectively, from $0.69 and $0.59, while their 2028 estimate was trimmed to $0.55 from $0.69. Additionally, the research firm expects buybacks to be on hold following $562 million executed in first-quarter 2026, projecting a lower diluted share count in 2026 and 2027. AlphaValue/Baader Europe has a reduce rating and price target of 6.36 pounds sterling on the stock.