BTC falls below 81,000: Why is it difficult to save the coin industry if the Federal Reserve remains on hold?

According to Woofun AI, the price of Bitcoin fell below the $81,000 mark on October 8, hitting an intraday low of around $80,800. This market performance is in stark contradiction to macroeconomic expectations: although traders generally expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in October, the coin market did not get a resuscitation as a result; on the contrary, the downward trend accelerated under multiple negative conditions.

Macro-level pressure mainly stems from the market's repricing of the Federal Reserve's policy path. The minutes of the September FOMC meeting released on October 7 sent a hawkish signal. Most participants believed that it was more likely that interest rates would be raised again before the end of the year, and that decisions were highly dependent on subsequent economic data. Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller further quantified this expectation in his October 8 speech. Citing October 7 futures data, he pointed out that market pricing showed an 85% probability of at least one rate hike in December. The longer-term path is just as steep: the probability of at least two rate hikes by March 2027 is close to 80%, and the probability of three or more rate hikes is 33%. Waller stressed that if economic data is in line with expectations, the interest rate hike process may continue, and even if some meetings are skipped, the path of austerity leading to 2027 is still clear.

At the same time, traditional asset markets are also increasing the pressure on the financing costs of risky assets. On October 8, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 5.305%, and the 2-year bond yield was 4.821%, while the price of Brent crude remained high at $104.87. High oil prices mean that the risk of inflation still exists, and high treasury bond yields directly raise the cost of holding leveraged funds, making it difficult for risky assets to escape the heavy pressure of shrinking valuations even if the Federal Reserve remains on hold in October.

The chain reaction of capital exhaustion and leveraged liquidation constituted a direct driver of price declines. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, Glassnode pointed out in the October 7 report that the sum of Bitcoin spot trading volume and US Bitcoin spot ETF trading volume is about 6.8 billion US dollars per day. This level is lower than the observed value of about 90% since January 2024, indicating a significant cooling of market activity. In terms of capital flows, the total amount of new inflows from ETFs, stablecoins, and corporate purchases was only $4.9 billion, while capital outflows over the past 30 days reached $12.8 billion, or less than 40% of total inflows.

Previously, the rise in prices depended mainly on the revaluation of existing capital rather than the in-depth acceptance of new purchases. The vulnerability of the leveraged side was fully revealed after the price fell below the critical range. CoinGlass statistics show that the total amount of Bitcoin liquidations in the past 24 hours was over $1 billion, of which $9.3 billion was long positions. Glassnode previously warned that the $81,700 to $83,300 range was at risk of intense bullish liquidation, while in the $81,000 to $81,250 range, the price eventually fell below this area, triggering chain liquidations and increasing volatility.

The key to future trends is whether buying can rebuild defenses at key support levels. If spot trading volume recovers and pushes the price back above the $85,500 support level, Bitcoin will face sell pressure in the $86,500 to $86,750 range. Further above, the largest single annual liquidation range monitored by Glassnode is between $87,100 and $95,900, with the largest liquidation scale around $92,000. If the price hits this point, it may trigger bears to stop losses and reverse the decline. Conversely, if buying is unsupported, the next clearing area is expected to be around $75,000, which will be an important reference point for the downtrend. Investors should keep an eye on the next macro-calendar: September CPI data released on October 14, the FOMC meeting on October 27-28, and the December 8-9 meeting. In the context of weak buying power, whether Bitcoin can hold its foothold ahead of these key points will determine its short-term fate.