The Bet NatWest Group Holders Made

NatWest Group has been busy, from teaming up with OpenAI on generative AI tools to rolling out hundreds of data driven projects across fraud checks and customer service. For NatWest Group shareholders, the return over the past year was 24.8%, including dividends. If that gain followed your own decision on 8 October 2025, you had to believe early AI partnerships and a heavy digital push would translate into durable earnings power rather than expensive experimentation.

On Simply Wall St, a Narrative is an investor's thesis written down: the reasoning, plus the numbers it rests on. Run those numbers and you get an estimated Fair Value.

The easy part of this move is behind NatWest Group. Zero in on 7 high quality undervalued stocks for companies trading below our estimates.

The Two NatWest Group Narratives Investors Had To Weigh

The shares cost £5.5 at the start of the period, and anyone buying NatWest Group then had to decide which story felt more believable.

The bullish narrative put fair value at £5.99, 9% above the start price. It relied on a 5.9% revenue growth assumption, supported by digital transformation, AI partnerships, and a profit margin estimate of 28.9% over a three-year window.

The cautious view saw fair value closer to £4.8, 13% below the start price. It assumed revenue growth of 1.3%, a 30.9% margin, and a future P/E of 8.7x, with execution and technology risks in focus.

What The NatWest Group Results Actually Tested

NatWest Group reported Q2 2026 revenue of £4,364m and net income of £1,603m, with net margin rising to 36.7%. That moved closer to the bullish case that leaned on stronger profitability from tech and AI investment. Revenue and earnings both rose against Q2 2025, so the evidence leaned more toward the optimistic narrative than the cautious one.

The lesson is simple. When a story leans on efficiency gains from technology, track net margin and absolute profit in later reports. If both move in the same direction as the pitch, the thesis has more real world support than a headline about new tools or partnerships.

What NatWest Group’s Price Seems To Be Saying Now

NatWest Group shares trade at £6.4 today, with net income in Q2 2026 at £1,603m and net margin at 36.7%. The business is putting up higher revenue and profit than in Q2 2025, so the recent story has been about a bank that is currently delivering more on the income line than a year ago.

The open question is whether sentiment has moved faster than the underlying bank. Any valuation work now rests on how long you think that higher profitability can be sustained without stretching assumptions on margins or the price-to-earnings multiple.

We value every stock in the world, every day. See what our valuation says NatWest Group is worth now.

Looking One Step Beyond NatWest

NatWest has leaned hard into digital tools and AI heavy projects. You could also look at where those clients turn for deeper financing.

Big borrowers still need balance sheet strength when funding infrastructure or security upgrades. That is where a global banking heavyweight can matter.

This other institution focuses on large scale lending, payments, and capital markets activity that supports those plans.

It aims to turn broad reach into earnings power across several divisions.

As companies wire more operations through data and software, that full service banking platform could see its role shift again.

The case is on the record, with the assumptions it rests on. → See the Narrative that values this company 31% above its price

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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