Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Exchange Unravels | The Middle East is making waves again, oil and gas shipping is being sought after, style changes, and consumption is strengthening
[Anatomy Dashboard]
During the National Day, the US released non-farm payrolls data for September. Non-farm payrolls increased by 29,000, which is expected to increase by 90,000, which is significantly lower than expected. The probability of not raising interest rates in October increased dramatically. However, Hong Kong stocks have not performed much. They lack the support of southbound capital, and are even stronger in shorting. The A-share market opened today. The main players who went long on Hong Kong stocks and pharmaceuticals went short during the holiday season, while technology stocks were also hit hard, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.43%.
The Middle East has once again become the focus of the capital game. Trump's national security team met for several hours at Camp David on October 2. Part of the content focused on the possibility of resuming large-scale combat operations against Iran. The downside always came out before we opened the market: According to the latest media reports, the US Department of Defense recently instructed the US Central Command to complete preparations for resuming large-scale military operations against Iran within a few days. The report said that the order did not give a specific date to launch the attack, and US President Trump has yet to make a final decision. Sources said that if large-scale military operations are resumed, it is expected that the US military will carry out large-scale bombing of Iran's energy facilities, infrastructure, and nuclear targets.
Negotiations between the US and Iran have not yet progressed, and the mediator Qatar is still waiting for Iran to respond to the latest US proposals, which include requiring Iran to reduce its uranium enrichment capabilities. Meanwhile, Revolutionary Guard Commander and Adviser Nagdi claimed that the strait was still closed and that the blockade of Tehran was deemed an “illegal” waterway. On the other side, Saudi Arabian-led multinational coalition spokesman Turki Maliki issued a statement on the evening of the 7th saying that the coalition forces launched large-scale military operations against the Houthis in Yemen and destroyed 82 military targets. The Houthis, on the other hand, used ballistic missiles and drones to attack Saudi Arabia's King Khalid International Airport, Abha International Airport, and various military bases. According to a report by the British Maritime Trade Action Organization (UKMTO), an oil tanker was ballistic attacked off the coast of Qatar on Wednesday (10/7). This is a rare attack deep in the Persian Gulf. Shipping was once again strained, and COSCO Marine Energy (01138) and COSCO Maritime Control (01919) rose more than 3%.
Brent crude oil surpassed 101 US dollars/barrel, and WTI crude oil rose more than 3% to 91.02 US dollars/barrel. Shandong Molong (00568) surged more than 16%; United Energy Group (00467) rose more than 12%; CNOOC Oilfield Services (02883) rose more than 5%; others, CNOOC (00883), CNPC (00857), and Sinopec (00386) all rose more than 2%. Generally, petty conflicts don't make much headway in the oil and gas industry. The rise so much in the oil and gas equipment category this time shows that the situation is quite tense.
The more tense the situation, the greater the threat to energy, especially in Europe. Finding alternative energy sources is even more urgent. Coal will become a priority option. See section focus for details. At the same time, new energy is bound to be a long-term plan. For example, CGN (01816) for nuclear power will rise by more than 3%; the implementation of various policy subsidies will drive the growth of household storage and commercial savings, and the expansion of Australian SRES capacity is expected to activate industrial and commercial energy storage demand. This is all inseparable from solid-state batteries. Related concept stocks such as Pioneer Intelligence (00470) in the equipment category rose more than 7%, while others include Ruipu Lanjun (00666) and Longpan Technology (02465), which rose nearly 2%. However, Yadi Holdings (01585) is actually also an energy replacement. The replacement of fuel motorcycles is also a trend. The Southeast Asian market space is large, and the company has production bases in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand. The barriers are relatively low, which is worth paying attention to. It's up nearly 5% today.
In addition to worrying about the relationship, the market also has US bond yields, which have now risen all the way to their highest levels in at least 20 years, yet the NASDAQ index and the S&P 500 index continue to hit record highs. According to some opinions, the reason for the sharp rise in US bond yields is that AI is expected to boost productivity and accelerate economic growth. Second explanation: High yields have actually hurt US stocks. In any case, corporate profitability is the key. If performance doesn't keep up, it will be very difficult to stimulate it. Furthermore, the US relies on foreign capital for about one-third of its debt financing, and a large portion of this capital comes from Japan and China. Japan has already lent “a lot of money,” and now Japan is raising interest rates to get this money back. China is also reducing its holdings.
Bearish voices have resurfaced, and the head of market strategy at a London investment bank issued a stern warning to investors: AI transactions may soon end, triggering the worst market crash since the global financial crisis. This statement has been around for a long time. Many people have been watching, and Buffett has left a lot of cash. Right now, it doesn't seem like the time has come yet. Because the latest US 10-year treasury bond auction is quite popular: the bid ratio is 2.77 times higher than the average of nearly 6 times; the winning bid yield is 5.30%, lower than the pre-auction secondary market interest rate (stop-through -1.7 bp), which indicates that buyers are willing to accept a lower yield to pick up the goods.
Well, why are technology stocks plummeting today? The simple explanation is a sense of concern about this AI environment. There are also rumors previously circulating in the market about the price reduction of optical chips, saying that the current price of optical chips is already under pressure, and there is pressure to reduce the price of 1.6T supporting optical chips. At a microscopic level, a review of the computing power orders disclosed since 2023 and whose execution period has reached the end of one year revealed that in the end, those that failed to be implemented effectively have become “mainstream.” These are all places that influence sentiment. Today, almost all AI hardware and software categories in Hong Kong stocks have declined sharply.
The market style has quietly changed. The pharmaceutical category certainly cannot be circumvented, but it has also increased too much, and it will take time to digest the chips. Today, more is shifting to consumption. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, from October 1 to 6, 2,848 million home appliances were traded in, driving sales of 12.34 billion yuan. The centralized release of the trade-in policy during the National Day holiday provided short-term data verification for the home appliance sector. Skyworth Group (00751) rose more than 6%, and Midea Group (00300) and Haier Smart Home (06690) rose more than 2%.
On October 8, 7 departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued “Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Expansion and Upgrading of Commodity Consumption”, which proposes to cultivate and form a 10-trillion market for green consumption, smart consumption, and healthy consumption by 2030. Low-GI foods will stand on the trend of healthy consumption and become a new growth point for the food industry. Ming Ming is very busy (01768): Leading the snack circuit, the largest chain retailer in China based on the 2024 GMV for snack food and beverage products. The GMV of stores reached 93.57 billion yuan in 2025, and the number of stores nationwide has already exceeded 20,000, up more than 5%; Bruco (00325) has outperformed expectations in overseas expansion and profit margins for the character toy category.
Competition for milk tea is fierce. Many companies are looking for diversified operations. There are more and more things to buy in milk tea shops, stealing the businesses of cafes, breakfast stalls, convenience stores, and pubs. This is the logic of 7-Eleven in Japan, which cuts the day into six sections: rice balls, sandwiches, and coffee in the morning; bento at noon; desserts in the afternoon; cooked food and beer at night; and fast food late at night. The same square meter shelf was repeatedly used six times in 24 hours, and the fresh food category contributed about 50% of the gross profit of Japanese stores. What did a good job was Gu Ming (01364), which rose more than 4% today.
[Section Focus]
According to Sino-Thai Coal: Coal (Shenwan) rose 1.51% at the close of the afternoon market today, up 22.81% year to date, leading electronics (21.67%) and telecommunications (19.93%), ranking first. Upward catalyst: 1) Q3 performance continued to improve month-on-month, and the definite dividend asset allocation for coal profit growth accelerated. 2) The off-season correction has passed, global energy resonance+ peak winter season, and a steady rise in coal prices is imminent.
The core driver of this upward cycle comes from supply. Increased domestic policies have led to “tightening the valves of the system”. The cost of overproduction has become an unbearable burden for “regulators and producers”, and the resumption of production will be maintained for a long time; import supplementation is limited. Indonesia's RKAB affects the growth in demand for coal and coal chemical substitutes under high oil prices in the second half of the year, and overseas supply is not relaxed.
At the end of the day, the strengthening of coal is due to energy constraints. At the same time, it has strong performance and dividends. It is a fairly good defensive variety. The main types of Hong Kong stocks are: China Shenhua (01088), Power Development (01277), Yankuang Energy (01171), and China Coal Energy (01898).
[Individual Stock Mining]
China Overseas Hongyang Group (00081): Continued optimization of the sellable pallet structure, profit side took the lead in turning positive growth
Recently, the National Standing Committee will study and introduce policies to stabilize the real estate market. China Overseas Hongyang Group announced that the company has signed a “Leasing Framework Agreement” with China Construction Co., Ltd. 2026H1, the company's revenue was 14.1 billion yuan, -3% year on year; net profit to mother was 330 million yuan, +15% year on year; net profit to mother accounted for 91% of total net profit, up 17 pcts year on year. 2026H1, the company achieved a net profit margin of 2.3%, an increase of 0.4 pct over the previous year.
Comment: The company's profit side took the lead in positive growth. The gross margin increased by 2.5 pct to 11.8% year on year, maintaining a contrarian recovery trend, mainly benefiting from the gradual entry of high-margin projects obtained after 2022 into the settlement period.
The saleable pallet structure continues to be optimized. 2026H1, after 2022, high-quality projects account for 69% of contract sales. The company completed full-caliber contract sales of 19.1 billion yuan, +15% year over year, ranking 18th in the industry, and continued to increase; of these, equity sales were 16.5 billion yuan, accounting for 86%, ranking 14th in the industry; sales area was 1.65 million square meters, +12% year over year; average sales price was 11,619 yuan/㎡, +3% year over year, of which the average residential sales price was 12,725 yuan/㎡.
With its operational strength, brand reputation and product strength, the company's sales volume in 18 cities ranked in the top 3 in the region, with a market share of more than 20% of full-caliber sales in 8 cities; the company's overall market share in 40 full-caliber cities was 9.6%, continuing to increase from 7.9% in 2025. 2026H1 Monthly contract sales of 2,936 billion yuan (+44%) in July 2026 and 2.348 billion (+10.1%) in August continued to grow positively in a single month. 2026H1, the average delivery area of the company's suites is 192 square meters, +13% over the same period, fully meeting the needs of the city where it is located to improve the customer base.
2026H1, the company added a land storage area of 480,000 square meters, -64%; the total land acquisition price was 2.1 billion yuan, -66% of which the equity land price accounted for 100%; the investment intensity calculated based on the land acquisition amount/sales amount was 11%; and the real estate ratio calculated based on the average sales price/new land storage floor price for the current year was 2.7, leaving reasonable profit margin. By the end of 2026H1, the company's total land storage area was 11.43 million square meters, -16% compared to the same period. Excluding 8.65 million square meters after sale, the coverage rate was 2.6 times that of the sales scale, which is still quite abundant; the total land storage equity ratio was 86%, which remained relatively high.
With 2026H1, the company achieved sales repayment of 18 billion yuan, with a repayment rate of 94%; revenue from commercial property operations (including non-consolidated projects) of 270 million yuan, +11% compared with the same period last year, contributing to steady operation; net cash flow from operating activities of 6 billion yuan continued to be positive. By the end of 2026H1, the company's monetary capital was 31 billion yuan, accounting for 27% of total assets; the short-term cash debt ratio was 3.6, the balance ratio excluding advance receipts was 60%, and the net debt ratio was 19%, all of which continued to improve. 2026H1, the company's weighted average financing cost was 3.3%, down 0.2 pct year on year, maintaining a low level in the industry. The real estate market is bottoming out, and core cities are expected to take the lead in steady restoration.