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Missed Barrick Mining's Rally? Here Is What Holders Saw

Simply Wall St · 3d ago

If you only glanced at the headlines about spin offs, African asset sales and war driven volatility around Barrick Mining, the last year probably felt messy rather than rewarding. Investors who held Barrick Mining over the past year are up 27.6%, including dividends. If you had bought on 6 October 2025, that outcome would look very different from the risks on the page back then, so what exactly was knowable at the start?

Barrick Mining is not the only name tied to this theme. Zero in on 36 elite gold producer stocks and compare how each one is priced.

The Two Barrick Mining Stories Investors Had To Weigh

The shares cost CA$47.5 at the start of the period, and Barrick Mining sat between a confident expansion story and a cautionary one focused on pressure from decarbonization and politics.

The bullish narrative pointed to projects like Lumwana and Reko Diq and used a Fair Value of CA$50.91, a price implied by optimistic copper and gold assumptions and self funded growth from internal cash flows.

The bearish view leaned on a Fair Value of CA$30.87, a level tied to expectations that revenue would grow only 2.9% a year and that profit margins would slip from 20.0% to 18.4%.

TSX:ABX 1-Year Stock Price Chart
TSX:ABX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

What The Results Changed For Barrick Mining

The biggest shift for Barrick Mining was in the reported Q2 2026 figures. Revenue moved from US$3.681b to US$5.292b and net income rose from US$811m to US$1.217b. Net margin edged up from 22.0% to 23.0%. That pattern lined up more closely with the optimistic case, although heavy spending needs and geopolitical exposure in the news kept the cautious story alive.

The lesson is simple. When a future depends on growth and higher profitability, focus on how reported revenue, absolute earnings and margin trends either confirm or chip away at that promise.

What Barrick Mining’s Price Already Assumes Today

Barrick Mining now trades at CA$57.95, well above where this period began. The selected Narrative’s Fair Value sits below the current price, framing today’s tag as one that leans on the stronger parts of the story.

You are paying for cash returns and large projects to keep working. A buyer at this level must judge whether decarbonization pressures and exposure to higher risk regions stay contained enough for those plans to hold.

"Decarbonization trends, material recycling, and alternative materials threaten long-term demand, potentially undermining Barrick's growth, revenue, and project viability. Reliance on high-risk regions and tightening ESG regulations exposes Barrick to heightened operational, compliance, and cost pressures that may erode margins and cash flow."

Not everyone reads the same price the same way. → See the lower figure this Narrative lands on, and how it gets there

Before The Next Story Makes Headlines

The story behind this run has already been told. The next one could be taking shape somewhere else. Where could you start looking before it becomes the headline?

  • Company 1 - 49% below our estimate - uses premium mall expansion and quicker inventory cycles to deepen omnichannel engagement.
  • Company 2 - 23% below our estimate - ramps exploration programs and development projects to support industrial and investor silver needs.
  • Company 3 - 48% below our estimate - integrates a newly acquired operation to increase production scale and discretionary cash generation.

That is three of the list. See all 7 potentially undervalued companies →

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.