RBC Tweaks Repsol Estimates Amid Weakening Refining Margins

09:26 AM EDT, 10/07/2026 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital Markets revised its estimates for Repsol (REP.MC) following the Spanish energy company's third-quarter trading update, with weakening refining margins amid higher physical crude prices and freight costs. "The deterioration of refining margins into October could weigh on sentiment and offset what was otherwise an extremely strong 3Q update. That said, we expect realized refining margins to remain well above mid-cycle levels going forwards, which suggests elevated cash generation and distributions for Repsol shareholders," analysts wrote in a Wednesday note. Taking this into account, the research firm lowered its 2026 and 2027 EPS forecasts by 9.4% and 1.8%, respectively, while that for 2028 was nudged down 0.3%. RBC also expects the company to announce a share buyback of "just under" 1 billion euros, bringing its full-year 2026 total to 1.8 billion euros. The stock's outperform rating and price target of 38 euros were maintained. Repsol is set to present its third-quarter financial results on Oct. 29.