Zhongtai Securities: Moderately inclined towards bulls after the holiday season, further increase positions and await signs of an inflection point in US bond yields

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhongtai Securities released a research report saying that it can be moderately skewed towards bulls after the holiday, and that the inflection point in US bond yields is a core condition for further increases in positions. 1) The offensive direction continues to focus on technology, domestic semiconductor equipment, China Securities 2000, and some major industries. If there is a breakthrough in the US-Iran negotiations and the yield on long-term US bonds clearly falls, we can further increase our positions in technology and small to medium market capitalization. 2) Retain energy security assets such as power equipment, energy chemicals, and oil transportation in the portfolio. When the situation eases and transportation costs fall, hedging positions can be appropriately reduced during the rebound; if strait disturbance continues, these directions will still assume a tail risk protection function. 3) The financial side of medical devices is worth paying attention to. The main trading policies for real estate and building materials are expected, and participation in positions should be restrained. Whether the post-holiday reverse withdrawal can evolve into a larger market, focusing on whether US bond yields, technology ETF undertakings, and institutional capital return can improve simultaneously.

1. Shareholding has been verified in overseas markets during the holiday season. The rebound in A-shares is highly dependent on the inflection point of US bonds

The year-end shareholding judgment was verified in overseas markets, but A-share technology's performance before the holiday season was weaker than expected. The Nasdaq reached a new high during the holiday period. The overall stock market in Japan and South Korea was strong, and Hong Kong stocks were generally stable compared to before the holiday; A-share technology continued to adjust before the holiday season, and the rise in long-term US bond yields was the main pressure. The return of capital after the holiday season and recovery from the overfall are expected to drive a backlash in the market, but whether the rebound can escalate into a larger market depends on whether US bond yields can reach a major inflection point.

The pre-holiday funding structure is already providing a bottom signal. ETFs related to Science and Technology Innovation 50 and GEM received large acceptance in the decline. Transactions fell to a low level, and the most urgent sales declined markedly; at the same time, institutional capital was still flowing out, and the removal of leverage was only slowing down. This comparison shows that the market has a backdraft basis, and the funding conditions for continuous main increases still need to be confirmed. Technology ETF acceptance, institutional returns, and US bond yields should be observed simultaneously one week after the holiday. The latter is still the core variable that determines the height of the rebound.

2. The core pressure on the rise in US bond yields comes from the hidden costs of the Middle East conflict. Debt and AI capital expenditure form an amplifier

Relatively stable oil prices have not eliminated the true cost of the blockage of the strait. Warship escorts, detours, and high-risk transportation have resumed part of the crude oil flow, at the cost of a sharp increase in freight, insurance premiums, and export discounts for oil-producing countries. Transportation has gained excess revenue, and the Gulf countries' fiscal revenue and crude oil industry chain profits have been squeezed; chemicals and key raw materials are also difficult to replicate the high-price rush of crude oil, and the global supply chain is still facing a gap. Financial pressure on the Gulf countries, inflation and exchange rate pressure in Europe, Japan, and South Korea may all translate into a sell-off of bonds and a reduction in US debt holdings. This explains the divergence between oil prices not getting out of control and US bond yields continuing to rise.

Stock debt and AI capital expenditure have further amplified the impact on interest rates. Rolling global debt, security and military investment, and manufacturing expansion continue to compete for capital; in an environment where interest rates are high and supply chains are blocked, every large investment and additional debt of AI companies may push up capital prices, and in turn increase their own financing burdens. AI capital expenditure still supports the industrial boom, but financing methods have become transmission channels for valuation and credit risk. Drastic cuts in welfare and debt stock, and a complete cessation of AI investment lack a realistic foundation. The more viable path to easing interest rate pressure is still to cool the situation between the US and Iran and restore low-cost traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

3. October enters a critical window. The path between the US and Iran determines the inflection point, and AI and domestic policies provide bottom support

October is a sensitive window for changes in US and Iran policy. Oil prices, diesel prices, home loan interest rates, and long-term US debt are affecting American voters' experiences more widely, and intensive election campaigns will speed up policy feedback. Recent communication signals show that the two sides are beginning to avoid the most difficult issues to resolve, such as the Strait of Mander, and reserve space for local agreements; the week ahead after the Camp David meeting is a key window for judging whether Trump will actually adjust his position. The benchmark scenario is that partial arrangements are formed before the election, and oil prices and US bond yields fall at the same time; the risk scenario is that the agreement continues to be delayed, and military and policy disturbances first push interest rates to the next level. If US domestic political constraints increase after the election, war spending and the sustainability of foreign policy will also decline, and the inflection point of US debt may be postponed until after the election or the beginning of the new congressional term.

The global AI cycle is still in an upward phase, but is more sensitive to interest rates. Nasdaq reached a record high during the holiday period, model company revenue continued to improve, and the next-generation model entered an intensive release period, indicating that AI bears have not regained dominance. Industrial fundamentals can explain why technology has bottomed out, and US bond yields determine whether valuations can expand. In the future, it is necessary to simultaneously track model corporate revenue, capital expenditure financing methods, and long-term interest rates. The three will jointly determine the slope of the global technology market.

Domestic policies show weak reality and strong expectations. High-frequency holiday data is weak. Real estate interest rate discounts reflect financial support for the first time, but the applicable conditions and intensity are still quite restrained, continuing the “pragmatic and practical” policy approach. Future policies will continue to target weak investment, consumption, and real estate, but they are constrained by fiscal space, global interest rates, and imported inflation. The actual strength of the policy is expected to be restrained, but it is not ruled out that the market will be affected by foreign media, etc., and the possibility of a phased “policy shift to expectations” will occur. Therefore, real estate, building materials, etc. are more suitable as thematic trading opportunities.