Antofagasta Needs 'Very Strong' Q4 to Hit FY26 Production Guidance Midpoint, RBC Says

02:44 AM EDT, 10/07/2026 (MT Newswires) -- RBC Capital Markets believes Antofagasta (ANTO.L) needs to deliver "very strong" production results in the fourth quarter to reach the midpoint of its full-year 2026 copper production outlook, as analysts expect a third-quarter volume miss. In a Tuesday third-quarter preview report on European miners, the research firm said hitting the middle of the mining company's guidance range of 625,000 tonnes to 655,000 tonnes will require an output of 240,000 tonnes in the final three months of 2026. "We forecast Q3 volumes -9% below consensus driven by lower production at Los Pelambres and Centinela. As a result we estimate gross and net cash cost of $2.83/lb and $1.41/lb respectively, ahead of consensus," analysts said, noting focus during the third-quarter production report on Oct. 15 is expected to be on group production outlook for next year. For 2027, RBC forecasts copper production of 700,000 tonnes, compared with consensus estimates of 703,000 tonnes. Against this backdrop, analysts trimmed the underperform-rated stock's price target to 33 pounds sterling from 34 pounds.