What is the probability of BTC breaking $100,000 by the end of the year after three weeks of continuous gains?

According to Woofun AI, BTC recorded its highest weekly closing price in 35 weeks after rising for three consecutive weeks. Analyst Kroon sees this as a strong bullish sign and predicts that it is expected to break the $100,000 mark by the end of the year based on historical data.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, BTC has risen 47 times for three consecutive weeks since 2012. The probability of an increase of 63% in the following two and four weeks is 63%, rising to 65% after eight weeks, 71% after 13 weeks, and 75% after 26 weeks; the average increase for 13 weeks is about 26%, corresponding to the target price of $108,000 at the end of the year. If we only look at data from 2018, the increase is conservatively estimated at 18%, but it will still break through six digits. In the Oct. 5 podcast, Krone emphasized that the probability of BTC reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026 is higher than the probability of failure.

In response to the short-term trend, the krone indicated that the probability that BTC will continue to rise over a longer period is 65%, 70%, and 75%, respectively, with a 26-week average increase of nearly 40%. He expects BTC to rise again in the next three to six months. The October target of at least $90,000 is likely to be achieved by the middle of the month, but the statistical support for breaking through $95,000 is weak. In terms of correction, the first support range was $84,000 to $84,800, followed by $82,800; a retracement to $83,000 to $84,000 would remain a bullish trend. As long as the price remains above $84,800, the $88,500 to $90,000 target is still attainable; once it falls below $80,000, the bullish pattern may be broken.

The current market sentiment is neutral, far below the level usually associated with the top of the market.