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Is BHP Group (ASX:BHP) Fully Valued On Its New Argentina Copper Project?

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

BHP Group (ASX:BHP) has drawn fresh attention after Cerro Quebrado S.A., a BHP company, secured an exploration contract with a purchase option for the El Seguro copper project in Argentina, extending the miner’s copper footprint.

The copper focus is landing at a time when BHP Group’s momentum has been building. A 90 day share price return of 9.30% has contributed to a year to date share price gain of 37.37% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 55.99%.

Scan for other copper focused operators showing similar momentum with our curated list of 16 top copper producer stocks as the sector reacts to BHP Group’s latest move in Argentina.

BHP Group looks like a heavyweight copper operator with a long record and fresh projects such as El Seguro in Argentina. The real question now is whether that strength is already fully reflected in today’s share price.

Most Popular Narrative: 31.1% Overvalued

BHP Group last closed at A$62.86, while the most followed narrative pegs fair value at A$47.93. This puts current pricing well above that reference point and turns the spotlight onto what is driving this gap according to Jamesiskindacool.

At A$47.93 per share, BHP Group (ASX: BHP) appears reasonably valued based on its current operating performance. For the six months to 31 December 2025, BHP reported revenue of US$27.9 billion, underlying EBITDA of US$15.5 billion and underlying attributable profit of US$6.2 billion, with an underlying EBITDA margin of 58.4%. Underlying earnings were US$1.222 per share for the half; annualising this figure and converting it at an AUD/USD exchange rate of 0.6949 implies approximately A$3.52 per share and a price-to-earnings multiple of around 13.6 times. This annualised figure assumes that the conditions experienced during the first half continue and should therefore be treated cautiously for a commodity producer.

See why 13 investors see BHP Group as 31% overvalued.

Result: Fair Value of A$47.93 (OVERVALUED)

Still, the risk is clear. If commodity prices or Chinese demand weaken, the earnings base behind that A$47.93 fair value could look too optimistic.

Find out about the key risks to this BHP Group narrative.

Next Steps

With BHP Group attracting both optimism and concern, it makes sense to move quickly, review the underlying numbers yourself, and weigh up the trade off between potential upside and risk. To see how that balance currently looks according to our data, take a closer look at the 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign.

Looking for more BHP Group investment ideas?

If BHP Group has sharpened your interest in opportunities tied to quality, income, and resilience, casting a wider net now can help you spot potential before the crowd.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.