BofA Expects UK Government to Deliver 'Cautious' Autumn Budget

11:15 AM EDT, 10/06/2026 (MT Newswires) -- BofA Global Research expects the UK government to prioritize caution over ambition for the Autumn Budget when Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey delivers his first budget statement on Oct. 28. "Given the fragile bond market environment, we think the government would aim to deliver a relatively cautious Budget, focussing on stability and the devolution agenda. The fiscal and political constraints and the need to avoid a large tax raising Budget imply that significant spending ambitions of the new government on defence, social care, unprotected department spending, more public control for utilities, council house building along with welfare reform are likely to be delayed to later years. The 10 year plan, next year's spending review/ Budget are the next key moments," the research firm said in a preview note published Tuesday. Analysts also do not anticipate changes to fiscal rules or any carve-outs or exclusions. However, they see the possibility of the government exercising some flexibility within the debt rule to boost investment spending "in a limited manner." A potential bank tax could also be in the cards via a higher surcharge, although BofA expects the financial impact of this sector-specific move to be manageable for large banks.