BofA Lifts Estimates, Price Objectives for ASML on Expected Higher Pricing, Shipments

06:54 AM EDT, 10/06/2026 (MT Newswires) -- BofA Global Research upgraded its earnings estimates and price objective for ASML (ASML.AS), citing anticipated higher like-for-like pricing and increased shipments of extreme ultraviolet lithography systems and dry units through 2028. "ASML have guided for 'higher value-based pricing' during Q2 earnings call, likely impacting the P&L towards the end of '27E. Conceptually, we estimate that for every 5% ASP increase (tools and services), ASML's EPS could increase by 8%, assuming roughly 2.5% higher input costs. If ASML can increase ASPs by 5% without increasing input costs, we estimate that EPS accretion would increase to c10%. Our revised estimates assume c5% ASP increase in CY28E and c2.5% increase in input costs, which we consider conservative at this stage. While we have kept our CY27E EUV forecast at 86 units, we have raised our CY28E EUV forecast to 120 units, up from 110. We think ASML will gradually increase production reallocating factory floor to low-NA and benefiting from shorter lead times at key suppliers such as Zeiss," the research firm said Tuesday. As such, analysts raised their 2028 revenue and EPS projections by 8.7% and 13%, respectively, to 76.5 billion euros and 85.20 euros. The revision is driven by 5% higher average selling prices across deep ultraviolet, EUV, and installed base management tools, alongside increased shipment volumes, partly offset by a 2.5% rise in input costs. "On our revised estimates, we expect ASML system revenues to grow 40%/31.9%/36.2% yoy in CY26/2728E, in-line to slightly above WFE revenue growth over the same period (33%/34%/30%) and deliver 50% EPS CAGR 2025-28E, the best of its global peers owing to higher gross margins (6.5ppts higher GM vs 1.3ppts on average for peers)," the note said. Against this backdrop, BofA lifted its price objective to 2,557 euros from 2,452 euros and maintained its buy rating and "top pick" status on the stock.