Guoxin Securities: External restrictions are expected to ease in Q4 to grasp the main line of Hong Kong stock valuation repair
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that the fourth quarter is a traditional low season for crude oil demand, and oil prices are expected to fall back in trading, which may cause interest rates on US bonds to flatten or fall in stages. Furthermore, the RMB exchange rate continues to be around 6.7 or even further strengthening, which will improve the international funding environment for Hong Kong stocks. Meta Muse has opened up room for imagination for personal agent applications, and the valuations of major Internet companies are low, which will also help repair Hong Kong stock valuations.
In terms of sector:
1. Big finance/high dividends: A high interest rate environment is relatively favorable to bank interest spreads, and valuation/dividends provide a buffer. Telecom operators' cash flow is stable, and it is a Q4 portfolio stabilizer.
2. AI computing power hardware: China's AI infrastructure investment is still a relatively definite industry trend, and profitability continues to improve, such as servers, PCBs, optical fibers, and GPUs.
3. Innovative drugs: The logic of BD going overseas is still there, but it has moved from beta market to individual stock alpha.
4. Internet leaders: Internet leaders are currently undervalued. The AI business is beginning to improve, and there are opportunities for valuation repair.
Domestic: Volume shrinks in September, risk appetite declines
A-shares traded 38 trillion yuan in September, a marked contraction from 47 trillion yuan in August. Incremental capital waits and waits, pre-holiday safe-haven combined with year-end institutional downsizing, and insufficient purchase acceptance. October is expected to be dominated by structural opportunities.
The first thing to do in the future is to pay attention to whether US bond yields and overseas inflation data will continue to disrupt growth estimates. The second is to track the effects of the implementation of real estate policies and the restoration of domestic demand. In terms of capital structure, technology segments with strong performance delivery and high-dividend defense sectors may be relatively dominant.
US: From interest rate cut expectations to reversal
Entering September, under the influence of the three major factors of US economic resilience, inflationary stickiness, and energy shocks, the market's expectations for interest rate hikes have now been raised sharply from 1 rate hike after the Jackson Hole annual meeting to 1 time this year and 2 times next year. The labor market is showing signs of weakening, but the unemployment rate may be difficult to touch Sam's rule (4.6-4.7%) in the short term, so high interest rates will continue for some time. Q4 is often a low season for energy use, so we judge that inflationary pressure may gradually ease.
Furthermore, the two signs of weakening power such as S&P and stagnant growth of big cloud companies are worth tracking. We reviewed the network bubble and found that the top component of the operator, market, and upstream equipment is a process that lasts several quarters, so choosing a good sector is more important than choosing the market at the right time.