UBS: Upgrading Samsonite's (01910) target price to HK$21.4 to maintain a “buy” rating

The Zhitong Finance App learned that UBS released a research report saying that it raised the target price of Samsonite (01910) from HK$20 to HK$21.4 to maintain a “buy” rating. Revenue for the third quarter is expected to fall 1.7% year-on-year, slightly better than management's guidance, mainly due to improvements in global air passenger demand starting the next quarter. Currently, in the third quarter, based on a fixed exchange rate, the revenue decline narrowed to 0.9%, and the gross margin excluding customs refunds stabilized at 60% quarterly; adjusted EBITDA fell 14% year on year to US$123 million, which means the EBITDA profit margin was 14.3%.

According to the bank, Samsonite's stock price fell 36% year to date, and the market lowered earnings forecasts per share for the 2026 and 27 fiscal years by 21% and 15%, respectively. Currently, buyers' expectations still reflect the risk of further profit cuts, but if revenue expectations for the third quarter are expected, it may help stabilize profit expectations, limit further downward market expectations, and support stock price performance.

The bank raised its adjusted EBITDA forecast by 3% for the 2028 fiscal year and 8% for the 2027-2028 fiscal year due to the slightly better than expected organic sales trend in the second half of this year, and the revenue contribution of its brand BEIS to be included in the group's overall finance in the fourth quarter. After BEIS contributions are included, Samsonite's sales are expected to increase 4.5% year-on-year at a fixed exchange rate in the fourth quarter and 8.5% in the 2027 fiscal year.