In the first three quarters of 2026, the overall supply was relaxed in the pig market, and pig prices were running at the bottom. Nanhua Futures believes that in the first three quarters, the pig market was deeply troubled by strong supply and weak demand. On the supply side, the current release corresponds to a high base of breeding sows. Combined with a jump in production efficiency such as PSY and MSY, and the average weight of listings is at an all-time high. The actual supply volume is sufficient, and the “reduction in production without reduction” characteristic of removal is remarkable. On the demand side, off-season consumption is compounded by the diversion of alternatives, fresh sales rates are running low, and frozen goods inventories have climbed to historic highs, forming a negative cycle. Many agencies expect the actual confirmation of the inflection point of the cycle, and the time window may be moved back to the first half of 2027. CITIC Futures pointed out that on the supply side, since the second half of 2025, the number of sows has continued to decline, but production cuts have been slow in the early stages. After breeding losses increased in the second quarter of 2026, production capacity removal began to grow at a rapid rate, and is still being eliminated. In 2026, sow production efficiency continued to improve, partially offsetting the decline in quantity and delaying the inflection point of supply. It is expected that the number of commercial pigs released in the fourth quarter of 2026 will remain high. There may be an inflection point at the end of 2026, and the number of pigs released in the first quarter of 2027 will slowly decrease from the high level. On the demand side, the macro-catering boom is insufficient, but low-priced pork supports alternative consumption. Demand for pigs gradually entered the peak season in the fourth quarter. Slaughter volume and meat/pig price ratio showed a seasonal upward trend. Demand increased, which had a boosting effect on pig prices. The inflection point of the supply cycle is expected to gradually be realized at the end of 2026. The pressure on commercial pigs to be released will begin to ease in 2027, and the cycle will bottom out and recover.

In the first three quarters of 2026, the overall supply was relaxed in the pig market, and pig prices were running at the bottom. Nanhua Futures believes that in the first three quarters, the pig market was deeply troubled by strong supply and weak demand. On the supply side, the current release corresponds to a high base of breeding sows. Combined with a jump in production efficiency such as PSY and MSY, and the average weight of listings is at an all-time high. The actual supply volume is sufficient, and the “reduction in production without reduction” characteristic of removal is remarkable. On the demand side, off-season consumption is compounded by the diversion of alternatives, fresh sales rates are running low, and frozen goods inventories have climbed to historic highs, forming a negative cycle. Many agencies expect the actual confirmation of the inflection point of the cycle, and the time window may be moved back to the first half of 2027. CITIC Futures pointed out that on the supply side, since the second half of 2025, the number of sows has continued to decline, but production cuts have been slow in the early stages. After breeding losses increased in the second quarter of 2026, production capacity removal began to grow at a rapid rate, and is still being eliminated. In 2026, sow production efficiency continued to improve, partially offsetting the decline in quantity and delaying the inflection point of supply. It is expected that the number of commercial pigs released in the fourth quarter of 2026 will remain high. There may be an inflection point at the end of 2026, and the number of pigs released in the first quarter of 2027 will slowly decrease from the high level. On the demand side, the macro-catering boom is insufficient, but low-priced pork supports alternative consumption. Demand for pigs gradually entered the peak season in the fourth quarter. Slaughter volume and meat/pig price ratio showed a seasonal upward trend. Demand increased, which had a boosting effect on pig prices. The inflection point of the supply cycle is expected to gradually be realized at the end of 2026. The pressure on commercial pigs to be released will begin to ease in 2027, and the cycle will bottom out and recover.