What You Can Learn From ITM Power Holders Up 60%

ITM Power spent much of early 2026 talking about higher Factory Acceptance Test pass rates and the shift toward cleaner, higher margin contracts. However, the half year numbers still showed a loss of £14.16 million on £18.026 million of revenue. For ITM Power shareholders, the return from the start of the year was 59.6%, including dividends. If you were deciding back on 1 January whether to buy, what assumptions about backlog quality, funding and competition would you really have needed to accept?

If the move has made ITM Power harder to judge, start where the gap is still open and scan 9 high quality undervalued stocks.

The Argument You Would Have Been Weighing On ITM Power

The shares cost £0.62 at the start, and anyone looking at ITM Power had to choose between two very different stories about what that price really signalled.

The bullish view pointed to a Fair Value of £0.94, a price implied by expectations that government hydrogen spending and ITM’s TRIDENT and NEPTUNE platforms would support 54.6% revenue growth and a 5.8% profit margin assumption.

The bearish camp saw Fair Value closer to £0.40, based on concerns that tighter financing, policy reversals and geopolitical risks would pressure contract decisions, even if revenue rose 54.1% with the same margin assumption and a 57.7x future P/E.

What The Results Changed For The ITM Power Thesis

The clearest new fact was ITM Power’s half year move from £15.534 million of revenue and a £28.86 million loss in H1 2025 to £18.026 million of revenue and a £14.16 million loss in H1 2026, with net margin improving from a loss of 185.8% to a loss of 78.6%. That mix of higher sales and smaller losses supported the optimistic case, but profitability assumptions stayed unproven.

The lesson is simple. When a story hinges on future margin repair, keep checking whether losses are shrinking faster than revenue is rising and whether that gap closes in reported net margin, not just in commentary.

What ITM Power’s Run Up Might Already Be Pricing In

ITM Power now trades at £1.02, and this Narrative’s Fair Value sits below that level. This flags a concern that the recent 59.6% move from the start of the year may already bake in generous expectations.

The key question is what must keep going right for today’s price to make sense. This includes the assumption that ITM Power converts its backlog into profitable projects despite financing, policy and competition pressures.

"Despite robust revenue growth and a rising contract backlog, ITM Power faces the risk that elevated global interest rates and structurally tighter capital markets will limit the availability of affordable financing for large-scale hydrogen infrastructure, which could suppress future project final investment decisions and thereby materially slow revenue growth and order intake long term."

One Narrative disagrees with today's price. → See where this Narrative says ITM Power should trade

Find Your Own Contrarian Opportunity

What if your next investment idea came before the headlines? Go straight to the companies whose prices and our estimates still disagree. Three places to start, with the names waiting behind the link.

• Company 1 - 29% below our estimate - targets adviser and retail clients through upgraded platforms and increased brand investment.
• Company 2 - 34% below our estimate - scales fee income as new funds push regions toward larger infrastructure allocations.
• Company 3 - 28% below our estimate - adds automated production and new distributors as supplement use broadens beyond athletes.

Those are three of them. See all 9 companies with the balance sheet to back it up →

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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