Goldman Sachs: Macau's gambling revenue fell 1% year on year in September, as expected to stabilize EBITDA in the third quarter

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Goldman Sachs released a research report saying that Macau's gaming revenue (GGR) in September fell 1% year on year to $18.1 billion (MOP. same below), which is roughly in line with expectations after the market reduction. It was 82% of the same period in 2019, affected by the seasonal off-season after summer vacation and before the 11th Golden Week; this meant that the average daily gaming revenue for the last 10 days of September remained at 587 million yuan, compared to previous weeks, at MOP 614 million, respectively.

According to the report, the total gaming revenue for the third quarter of this year reached 60.2 billion yuan, down 1% and 4% from quarter to quarter, respectively. This includes the impact of the dispersion of gaming consumption during the July World Cup. Over the first nine months of this year, gaming revenue increased 3% year over year, in line with the bank's forecast of a 3% year-on-year increase for the whole year, while the comparison base from November to December will be more favorable. At the same time, the bank expects EBITDA for the third quarter to remain relatively stable on a quarterly basis. It believes that with a low base of gaming revenue and daily operating expenses, especially from November to December, the fourth quarter may usher in a more meaningful revaluation.

The bank believes that current sector valuations are still attractive; based on trends from the third quarter so far, it is believed that Galaxy Entertainment (00027) may significantly win gaming revenue market share, while MLCO.US (MLCO.US)'s market share may be under pressure.