GBPAUD: Wave Four Triangle Could Lead to Another Decline

GBPAUD broke below the base channel support at the start of 2026 signaled a meaningful structural shift. This breakdown suggests that a bearish impulsive phase may now be in play, increasing the probability of further downside continuation within a projected five-wave bearish impulse. As long as price remains below key resistance, the broader bias remains bearish, with expectations of additional weakness within wave 5 after the current wave 4 correction.

GBPAUD has been trading sharply lower this year, and the bearish impulse still appears incomplete. However, the market has been range-bound since April, which increasingly looks like a wave four triangle. Resistance around 1.94 has triggered a reversal lower, although one final sub-wave of wave four could now be in progress before another decline toward the 1.82 area later this year.

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