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Autodesk (ADSK) Expands Arcadis AI Partnership, Is It 44% Below Fair Value?

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Autodesk’s new AI partnership with Arcadis

Autodesk (ADSK) is back in focus after Arcadis expanded its collaboration with the software group to push AI, connected data and digital workflows deeper into architecture, engineering and construction projects.

Autodesk’s expanded AI push with Arcadis arrives after a mixed run for investors, with the share price down 27.11% year to date and the 1-year total shareholder return declining 34.87%, even as the 3-year total shareholder return is slightly positive at 2.47%.

Scan beyond Autodesk and see which peers are already leaning into AI driven design and project delivery with our curated list of 37 profitable AI stocks that aren't just burning cash.

Autodesk now trades at a clear discount to both analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates after a sharp year to date slide. Is that gap justified by risk, or has sentiment pushed the stock too far?

Most Popular Narrative: 44% Undervalued

Autodesk’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at about $370 per share versus the last close at $209. The gap this view needs to explain is already wide before Arcadis-fuelled AI optimism enters the picture.

"At roughly $212, the market is already demanding a significant deterioration from our certified assumptions before the valuation becomes uncomfortable. A 43% raw discount does not mean Autodesk must reach $370. It means our assumptions can be wrong, meaningfully wrong, and the stock may still work."

See why 8 investors see Autodesk as 44% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $370 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the narrative could crack if Autodesk mis-prices AI features, or if an AI-native rival emerges and persuades engineers to absorb switching costs.

Find out about the key risks to this Autodesk narrative.

Next Steps

If this Autodesk story seems focused on potential upside, consider it a prompt to stress test the numbers yourself and act quickly while sentiment remains divided. To see what others are excited about, review the 5 key rewards.

Looking for more Autodesk investment ideas?

Do not stop at Autodesk. Broaden your watchlist with focused stock ideas that match different risk levels, income goals and balance sheet preferences.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.