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VEON Holders Are Up 40%. The Case They Had To Back Was Not The Easy One

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

VEON spent 2026 signing data center deals in Uzbekistan, pushing satellite links with Starlink and turning fintech moves like TPL Insurance into real products. Holding VEON from the start of the year would have returned 40.3%, including dividends. If you had been weighing a purchase on 1 January, you would have been staring at bullish digital growth forecasts and bear-case worries about shrinking margins, and asking which side of that trade you truly believed.

VEON has already moved. See which of 32 high quality undervalued stocks still trade below our estimates.

The Two VEON Stories Investors Were Arguing About

The shares cost US$52.57 at the start of the period, and anyone looking at VEON back then was choosing between two very different stories about its future.

On the optimistic side, the Digital Services In Emerging Markets Will Spark Mixed Prospects narrative pointed to a fair value of US$69.64, a price implied by expectations of 7.0% annual revenue growth and a future P/E of 8.2x.

The Veon's Subsidiary Kyivstar Eyes Nasdaq Listing view argued for a fair value of US$45.56, based on assumptions of 5.3% revenue growth and profit margins settling near 11.2% as Kyivstar traded independently and VEON managed listed-subsidiary risk.

NasdaqGS:VEON Trailing 12-Month Earnings & Revenue History as at Oct 2026
NasdaqGS:VEON Trailing 12-Month Earnings & Revenue History as at Oct 2026

What The Results Changed For The VEON Debate

VEON’s key test came from its Q2 2026 figures. Revenue was US$1,271m against US$1,087m a year earlier, which helped the growth-focused case. Net income moved from US$595m to US$122m and net margin fell from 54.7% to 9.6%, so the profitability piece of the bullish story was not confirmed. Overall, the evidence pointed in both directions.

The whole argument turned on whether higher digital activity would translate into durable earnings power. For any other telecom or fintech stock, it can be useful to track revenue, net income and margin together to see if new products are building both scale and profitability, not just top line.

What VEON’s Run Up 40% Already Assumes

Today VEON trades at US$73.93, well above the start-of-year price, while the selected Narrative’s Fair Value sits below the current market level. That view leans on the idea that concentration in volatile countries and aggressive digital expansion could still weigh on earnings quality.

A buyer today is effectively assuming VEON can keep scaling its AI led digital platforms without margins or cash generation being heavily dented by political shocks, currency swings, or low-return fintech rollouts. The question is how the risks in the selected Narrative reshape that assumption.

"While the company is benefiting from rapid growth of mobile data usage and increasing digital inclusion in emerging markets, its concentration in politically and economically unstable regions like Ukraine, Pakistan, and Bangladesh creates the risk of recurring operational disruptions, which could result in unpredictable swings in revenue or EBITDA and constrain long-term earnings."

That disagreement has a full argument behind it. → Uncover the lower Fair Value this Narrative argues for

Where Could You Get There Earlier?

What if your next investment idea came before the headlines? Go straight to the companies whose prices and our estimates still disagree. Three places to start, with the names waiting behind the link.

  • Company 1 - 48% below our estimate - helps manufacturers and regulators investigate complex product failures as technology and safety expectations evolve.
  • Company 2 - 37% below our estimate - turns large data center and modular construction pipelines into recurring mechanical service relationships.
  • Company 3 - 25% below our estimate - supplies GPU-based platforms that many AI-focused facilities standardize on for core workloads.

Those are three of them. See all 25 companies with the balance sheet to back it up →

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.