BTC surges by 85,000 and falls: favorable inflation is difficult to beat the rebound in US bond yields

According to Woofun AI, the Bitcoin price quickly retreated after briefly hitting a high of $85,000, and this fluctuating trajectory revealed the market's fragile balance after the release of macro data. Although the release of US inflation data temporarily mitigated market concerns about another rate hike by the Federal Reserve, the subsequent price reversal showed that the initial buying power was not enough to support the continued rise in asset prices.

This brief data-driven rebound and rapid decline highlights the intense game between investors' sensitivity to interest rate prospects and careful assessment of risk asset support in the current market environment.

Detailed analysis of macro data reveals the deep logic behind price reversals. PCE (personal consumption expenditure) data for August was released on September 30 at around 12:30 UTC. This point in time became a key point in the turning point of market sentiment. According to the data, core PCE after excluding food and energy factors increased by 0.2% in August, compared to a 3.0% year-on-year increase.

This annual figure is lower than the 3.3% forecast in the Wall Street Journal, which seems favorable, but the overall inflation rate, including food and energy, was 0.3% this month and 3.4% for the whole year. Notably, the core annual inflation rate for July has been lowered to 3.0%, the same level as August.

This means that in two months, there has been no further decline in inflation, and the overall inflation rate is still higher than the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This stagnation has weakened the certainty of expectations of interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, yields on US Treasury bonds have reversed the previous downward trend. The US 10-year US Treasury yield has recovered to around 5.28% after falling to a low of 5.20%. The rebound in yield directly raised the level of return on government bonds, thereby weakening the initial support for risky assets such as Bitcoin. Higher interest rates will raise borrowing costs, making savings products that require interest payments more attractive than assets such as Bitcoin. Lower inflation data should have given the Federal Reserve more room to suspend interest rate hikes, but the steady core inflation has broken this logical chain. As a result, after a brief rise above $85,000, Bitcoin quickly fell below $84,000. The initial buying power was not enough to support the price to continue to rise. This may explain why Bitcoin's upward momentum will gradually weaken, but time points alone cannot determine the specific reason for its reversal. The more critical variable is the subtle change in macro liquidity expectations.

Woofun AI collates data and shows that from the perspective of technology and institutional trends, chart signals and capital flows provide a more microscopic perspective. Bitstamp's 4-hour chart shows that the price of Bitcoin rose to about $85,500 on September 30, and the long upper line in the chart records that price increase and subsequent retracement. At 21:20 UTC, the price of Bitcoin was around $83,700, below the 50-period simple moving average of around $84,200. This moving average is calculated by calculating the closing price over 50 4-hour periods. Bitcoin crossed this average during the upward process, but then came back below it.

This means that before another attempt is made to hit the rejected price zone, this average line will be the first price to be taken back. These values are compiled based on chart data from September 30, and the moving average changes as each cycle ends.

If Bitcoin closes above the 50-period simple moving average within 4 hours and remains near this level without retracting, that would be more persuasive than another brief rise, as it shows that buyers are still capable of maintaining a higher price after the initial buying momentum has subsided. As early as the beginning of September, the price of Bitcoin had already surpassed $87,000, so this rise in inflation data is actually an attempt to recover lost ground within that month's price range, and the previous high still exists. This price range helps us understand Santiment's assessment more accurately.

The analyst believes that as we enter the fourth quarter, Bitcoin outperformed stocks and gold. At the time of publishing the relevant report, it estimated that Bitcoin rose by about 7% in September, while the S&P 500 index had almost zero changes, and gold fell by more than 6%. The chart uses different Bitcoin growth data from the report: it shows that Bitcoin rose 6.3% in five weeks, while the S&P 500 rose 0.3% and gold fell 6.5% during the same period. These data should not be viewed as earnings ratios over the same period, but they all point to Bitcoin's relative strength.

Even with previous upward performance, once the intraday rebound fails, the price may continue to fall. Santiment describes the overall upward trend, while the 4-hour chart is testing whether buyers can resume this upward trend. Another concrete example of Santiment's views on the demand side is that Strategy (MSTR.US) bought 1,665 bitcoins. Information disclosed by the company on September 28 shows that these bitcoins were purchased between September 21 and 27, which confirms that the company continued to buy Bitcoin even before the inflation data was released.

If the next rebound lasts longer, then it will be even more significant. There are two situations that may change short-term market trends: if treasury bond yields are still high, it will be a greater test for buyers; in comparison, if there is a rebound in the context of favorable inflation data, the pressure will be less. Maintaining high prices in this environment can reinforce Santiment's view on strong demand without depending on further improvements in interest rate prospects.

In terms of market outlook, the key variable in short-term trends is whether prices can gain a foothold in macroeconomic stress tests. Since 2020, Coindoo's reporter Kosta has been reporting on the cryptocurrency market and blockchain infrastructure. He has accumulated more than six years of industry experience by tracking market trends, industry trends, and the development of emerging blockchain technology every day. He is good at analyzing on-chain data for coins such as Ethereum, Solana, and Ripple, while also focusing on the capital flow of institutional ETFs and the price trend of digital assets. The results of his work at Coindoo have been quoted by other news agencies, and his reports have always been based on data, covering market developments in fields such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Ripple.

Over the years, Kosta has also written over 6,000 articles for cryptocurrency media in several different regions. His coverage includes not only the cryptocurrency market, but also the broader fintech industry. He will track price trends while also analyzing the technical and regulatory factors affecting the development of the industry. To support its own analysis, Kosta will actively use on-chain data and analytical indicators provided by well-known platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant to obtain deeper and more grounded market insights. He is a firm believer in transparency and the importance of the data that supports the blockchain ecosystem. His professional degree in marketing management in Denmark further complements his analytical skills, enabling him to better use communication strategies and content targeting skills in his work.

This in-depth observation, based on data and professional background, provides an important reference for understanding the current state of Bitcoin's existence in the macroeconomic gap.