Giant whales hoarded 40,000 BTC in 10 days, retail investors left the market, end of cycle?

According to Woofun AI, the Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) market is showing significant structural differentiation: the accelerated accumulation of giant whales is in stark contrast to the continuous wait-and-see of retail investors. This difference in on-chain conditions has always been an important precursor to market reversal.

On-chain analyst Santiment noted in a report released on Tuesday that wallets holding 10 to 10,000 bitcoins have accumulated another 41,025 bitcoins in the past 10 days. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, this type of wallet currently controls 13.64 million bitcoins, equivalent to 67.93% of the total Bitcoin supply, and their holdings have recovered to the highest level since the rebound in mid-August. Santiment points out that judging from historical data, when these large holders start to accumulate bitcoins, the performance of Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market is generally better, while continued sell-offs tend to put more pressure on prices. In contrast to giant whales are retail groups — wallets holding less than 0.01 bitcoins have hardly made any moves and haven't followed Bitcoin's recent trend. Santiment believes that if retail investors continue to sell and giant whales continue to accumulate, this situation may further benefit the market, as historically retail stop-loss behavior has often meant better buying opportunities.

However, the current difference does not necessarily indicate specific price movements.

Well-known analyst Kevin Capital believes that Bitcoin's recent technical breakthroughs further prove that its cyclical low has appeared. Bitcoin has broken through a number of important technical barriers, including the 50-week moving average, the 200-day exponential moving average, and the simple moving average, as well as the higher price points that have supported the market's 'low and high range' pattern until now. In a podcast released on Tuesday, Kevin estimated that the probability that Bitcoin has bottomed out is about 90%, while he believes that future retracements will bring new and higher lows. In the short term, his bullish price range is between $77,000 and $83,000.

Kevin said that USDT's share of Bitcoin transactions is testing the 6% key support level. If this support level is broken, it could push the price of Bitcoin up again to $100,000; if the price rebounds, it may indicate an early retracement. He also pointed out that from a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin's price trend is more likely to show a new and higher low rather than a new cyclical low again.