OPEC+ may keep the November quota unchanged and will not resume production suspension in 2022 until the end of the year

The Zhitong Finance App learned that, according to two participants, major OPEC+ member states are likely to stick to the plan to keep crude oil production quotas unchanged next month when meeting this weekend.

The representatives said that countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia — which have nominally completed the reversal of production cuts in 2023 — may approve the current roadmap and keep production targets unchanged in November.

The OPEC Secretariat in Vienna and the Saudi Ministry of Energy did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Although oil supplies to the Middle East, which were interrupted due to the war in Iran, are showing signs of recovery, production of millions of barrels in the region is still at a standstill. This has made the series of production goals that OPEC and its allies have agreed upon since the outbreak of the conflict to be largely symbolic.

This series of production increases enabled the organization to formally lift production cuts in 2023 — but only on paper.

Delegates said the organization has a roadmap and will not resume another batch of production suspended in 2022 until at least the end of the year.

Even restarting this batch of production capacity is difficult: due to the combined effects of insufficient investment, sanctions, and various production stoppages, production capacity in many OPEC+ member countries is declining year by year, making it difficult to return to earlier production levels.

The policy direction of OPEC+ 2027 also depends on the results of member countries' production capacity assessments. The assessment will be completed this week and submitted to oil ministers for consideration at a formal ministerial meeting on November 29.