BTC's rebound gets cold: absence of spot buyers and selling pressure from long-term holders

Zhitongcaijing · 2d ago

According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin (BTC) showed signs of a rebound in the report released by Glassnode on September 28, but the buying power in the spot market appeared extremely weak. This contradiction between price recovery and basic demand has become the core concern of the current market.

Price momentum mainly stemmed from early inertia. BTC fell back to around $84,000 after hitting $87,000, and the 4% weekly increase was entirely contributed by the increase on the previous Monday. The Relative Strength Index climbed 14.8% to 70.4 points, breaking through the upper limit indicating that gains were driven by previous momentum.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, open positions increased to $38.9 billion (2.1% increase), and perpetual futures traders turned sellers. Despite the cooling of bullish sentiment, this value is still high.

The flow of capital showed structural differentiation. The weekly net inflow of the US Bitcoin Spot ETF (IBIT.US) reached 2.7 billion US dollars, far exceeding the upper limit, even though ETF trading volume fell from $181 billion to $149 billion. The real value growth rate reached 1.1%, and the profitable Bitcoin supply ratio rose from 69.3% to 74%, indicating that while buyers are accepting high prices, holders are also selling at strong prices. According to data from the X platform, the price of BTC rose 35% from its August low, while BTC-denominated open positions fell by nearly 20%, to the lowest level since March, which reduced the risk of leverage withdrawal.

However, long-term holders' position density in the $84,000-$85,000 range was higher than in any other price range, posing a key resistance. The more critical variable is that the spot trading volume of other cryptocurrencies is close to four times that of BTC, a new high since September 2025. Historically, large-scale capital flows to high-risk assets have often been formed along with the top of the BTC price, and current signals are worth watching out for.