BTC falls below $81,722, ETF (IBIT.US) investor profit and loss critical point analysis

According to Woofun AI, the US inflation data (PCE) to be released on Wednesday will be a key variable in determining the profits and losses of ordinary Bitcoin ETF (IBIT.US) investors, and the market focus is on whether the price can maintain the key support level.

The price threshold game is intensifying. On September 29, Bitcoin rebounded above $83,000 after hitting an intraday low of $82,775.94, but this level is fragile. If the price falls by about 2.2% from $83,000, it would directly break through $81,722. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seiffert pointed out on September 21 that $81,722 is the average cost benchmark for ordinary ETF holders. Although the recent rebound made it profitable, once it falls below this line, the trading trend will be extremely indicative. By contrast, Glassnode's September 9 report considers ETF-related assets to have a higher break-even point, around $86,000. Seiffert's estimates set a specific threshold for Wednesday's trend.

Notably, the $84,000-$85,000 range is also critical, and Glassnode's September 23 report indicated that the region has concentrated the largest number of long-term holders' positions. Prices were below this range on Tuesday, and prices were above it when the report was published. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. calculated Bitcoin's 365-day moving average of $80,500 on September 22. If the price falls below $81,722 and falls further down $80,500, it will simultaneously break through these two important reference points.

Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the interlacing of multiple cost baselines has made the current market in a highly sensitive state, and breakthroughs in any direction may trigger a chain reaction.

The macro data release schedule is tight and far-reaching. ADP (ADP.US) is scheduled to release September private employment data at 8:15 a.m. EST; the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will then release August personal income and expenditure data at 8:30 a.m., and release the third estimate of GDP for the second quarter simultaneously. These releases coincide with the Bureau of Economic Analysis's annual national and regional economic account update reports, which include revisions to historical data. ADP data may have taken the lead in driving changes in yield before PCE data is officially released. At 8:30 a.m., the new inflation data will be subject to market scrutiny along with GDP data and revised historical benchmarks. Traders need to re-evaluate their initial response to the new inflation data after understanding employment data, GDP estimates, and various revisions. Fluctuations in yield and price trends after initial fluctuations will clearly reveal the reshaping logic of asset pricing in the macro context.

Scenario inference shows that if higher-than-expected PCE data pushes up yields and causes Bitcoin to fall below $81,722, according to Seiffert estimates, ordinary ETF holders will once again fall into losses. The key signals are whether the price continues to be below this threshold, as well as subsequent ETF funding flows and spot purchases. If inflation data falls short of expectations and yields fall, Bitcoin may test the $84,000-$85,000 range mentioned by Glassnode. Only by staying stable can it reflect real market demand. If the data is in line with expectations, the impact of ADP data, GDP data, and their revised values will be amplified, and prices may remain volatile even with sharp intraday fluctuations. $81,722 is close to the low intraday price on September 29, and can be reached with a slight fluctuation. The final observation indicator is whether the yield trend can continue after the data release cycle is over, and whether the price can stabilize on one side of the ETF holders' cost benchmark.