US stock outlook | The three major stock index futures have mixed ups and downs PCE data will soon be revealed, and Micron (MU.US) earnings will be released after the market
Pre-market market trends
1. Before the US stock market on September 30 (Wednesday), futures for the three major US stock indexes had mixed ups and downs. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.01%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.03%, and NASDAQ futures were down 0.09%.
2. As of press release, the German DAX index fell 0.13%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.07%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.53%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.28%.
3. As of press release, WTI crude oil rose 1.51% to $90.73 per barrel. Brent crude rose 1.76% to $97.85 per barrel
Market news
I'm afraid the US PCE will throw cold water again in August! Core inflation is expected to remain stubborn, and evidence that the Federal Reserve “no longer needs to raise interest rates” is difficult to find. According to market forecasts, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, the overall PCE for August and the core PCE excluding food and energy costs, are both expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month. On a year-on-year basis, the overall PCE is expected to rise by 3.7%, and the core PCE is expected to rise by 3.3%, all the same as in July, and still far above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. In other words, there is little sign that inflation will subside anytime soon. This means that after the September rate hike, the debate over whether to act again in October or December will only become more intense.
Mortgage interest rates in the US have been rising for six consecutive weeks, hitting hard on demand for refinancing and home purchases. The American Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index shows a 6% drop in weekly mortgage demand. Last week, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages that meet standard loan balance requirements rose from 7.12% to 7.30%. In a loan with a 20% down payment ratio, the number of loan points including the loan origination fee increased from 0.73 to 0.75. Demand for refinancing has been hit the hardest, because in the current environment of higher interest rates, very few borrowers can benefit from it. The number of home loan refinancing applications fell 9% this week, and 56% lower than the same period last year. The share of refinancing in the total mortgage business volume fell to 38.3% from 39.3% the previous week. MBA economist Joel Kan said in a statement: “Government-supported refinancing operations fell 13%, with both FHA and VA loan applications showing double-digit weekly declines.”
Komo: Middle East oil exports have recovered to 90% before the war. J.P. Morgan's latest report shows that with the resumption of operation of Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline, Middle East oil exports are picking up rapidly. Over the past 5 days, the average value of regional crude oil and refined oil exports remained at about 20.5 million b/d, equivalent to 89% of the normal level in 2025, and only about 11% lower than before the war. However, the recovery was uneven. Crude oil exports have rebounded to 17.5 million b/d, equivalent to 98% of pre-war levels, indicating that the crude oil market has basically returned to normal; exports of refined oil products are still only about 3 million b/d, equivalent to 58% of normal levels, and supply constraints on diesel, aviation coal, etc. are still obvious. J.P. Morgan stressed that the resumption of transportation does not mean an improvement in the safety situation; more accurately, the energy industry is increasingly able to maintain operations in a continuously high-risk environment. Currently, the largest remaining gap in the Middle East oil market has shifted from crude oil to refined oil products.
Iran says it has received a response from the US side to its proposal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. On the 30th local time, Iranian government spokesman Muhajrani said that at the government cabinet meeting on the same day, Foreign Minister Alagezi reported on his trip to New York and a series of meetings held, including a proposal submitted by Iran to the US through a mediator on the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Alagzi said that he has received a response from the US side to this proposal. The Iraqi side has yet to reveal further details. Iranian Foreign Minister Alagzi said on the 28th that Iran has proposed conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and advancing negotiations through the Qatar mediator. Qatar will hand over the plan to the US, and Iran is awaiting an official response from the US side. On the same day, US President Trump confirmed that the US and Iran had exchanged information through the mediator, but denied reports that they were willing to conditionally lift sanctions against Iraq.
A number of US technology companies have signed agreements on artificial intelligence safety and self-regulation. The heads of several US technology companies signed a document called the “White House Super Smart Agreement: Frontier Responsibility Joint Commitment” at the White House on September 29, local time. The agreement requires companies to commit to strengthening security controls over cutting-edge artificial intelligence models. Participating companies will also meet regularly to study and formulate relevant standards and industry specifications.
Individual stock news
Wall Street waits with bated breath: Will the Micron (MU.US) earnings report be a surprise? Driven by the strong AI wave, Micron Technology will soon reveal its latest high-profile earnings report after the Wednesday market, and the market generally expects it to hand over an impressive questionnaire. According to Visible Alpha, Micron Technology's fourth-quarter revenue is expected to reach US$50.95 billion, an increase of 350% year over year. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $31.63, which is more than 10 times the same period last year. According to J.P. Morgan analyst Harlan Sur, investors should pay more attention to “unexpected surprises” that management may throw out — such as a large-scale new capital return plan, which usually means big share buybacks or increased dividends. American Optical Disc rose 0.3% previously.
According to the news, Apple (AAPL.US) will vigorously enter the smart home market. According to reports, Apple plans to vigorously enter the smart home market on October 13, which marks a key expansion of the company's product line under the leadership of new CEO Tenus. According to people familiar with the matter, the core of this strategy is a smart home central control device codenamed J490. Apple is also planning to release the first update to the HomePod mini since its launch in 2020, as well as the first new Apple TV set-top box since 2022. These products will also showcase Apple's new Siri artificial intelligence assistant, which took years to develop. The release of the upgraded version of Siri has been delayed several times, and these smart home devices are expected to highlight Apple's vigorous efforts in the field of artificial intelligence. People familiar with the matter revealed that this home central control device will be designed with a square display of about 6 inches and will be available in both wall-mounted and desktop versions; the new HomePod Mini and Apple TV will retain the current design, but will be equipped with a faster processor to support Siri's more powerful AI model.
Meta (META.US) is reportedly using AI data centers to claim high R&D tax credits. Meta is using the US R&D experimental tax credit to claim multi-billion dollar tax benefits for its artificial intelligence data centers. The company described the multi-billion dollar data center project as an “experimental R&D activity,” and stated that AI computing chips purchased from Nvidia and other suppliers were investment in experimental projects, so they were eligible for the credit. Documents show that last year, the policy helped Meta reduce its tax burden by nearly $4 billion, making it one of the biggest beneficiaries of this tax credit among listed companies. However, Meta's internal accountants have warned that this practice poses legal risks, and the IRS may challenge the application. Andre Shevchuck, partner at tax consulting agency BPM, said that classifying AI data centers as R&D experimental projects “beyond the norm.” The IRS has also reviewed the practice of companies including ordinary commercial expenses in R&D credits in the past. Meta fell 0.4% in the premarket.
Tesla (TSLA.US) signed a $30 billion financing arrangement, including revolving credit and deferred withdrawal loans. According to US Securities and Exchange (SEC) documents, Tesla (TSLA.US) has signed a number of financing arrangements, including a US$20 billion three-year deferred withdrawal term loan line, an US$8 billion five-year revolving credit line, and a US$2 billion 364-day revolving credit line. Documents show that Tesla terminated the original revolving credit agreement at the same time. The new 5-year revolving credit line allows for up to $500 million in letters of credit, and the 3-year deferred withdrawal term loan line expires on September 29, 2029. Additionally, Tesla's revolving credit line can be increased by up to $4 billion to reach $14 billion. Tesla fell 0.6% in the premarket.
The battle for AI computing power has been upgraded! Anthropic revealed that the 84.5 billion US dollar agreement SpaceX (SPCX.US) AI growth engine accelerated further than the May estimate. According to the report, Anthropic, the global AI model/ AI application leader, has signed an agreement to pay up to 84.5 billion US dollars to use the AI computing power resources of SpaceX (SPCX.US), the “AI+ Space Exploration” leader founded and led by Musk until 2029. This also means that Anthropic agreed to pay SpaceX for computing power costs close to double the previous estimate. This move also highlights that the faster the model commercialization process, the more strategically valuable the computing power clusters that can be delivered in a timely manner and operate stably. This amount can be described as far higher than the size of the agreement disclosed in May of this year. SpaceX revealed in its IPO filing that Anthropic agreed to pay $1.25 billion a month to obtain AI computing power for a maximum period of three years. The agreement can be cancelled with 90 days' notice. If the agreement were to be fully implemented for three years, the total amount would be around $45 billion.
Boeing (BA.US) is next: defeating Northrop Grumman (NOC.US) to win an F/A-XX order for the US Navy sixth-generation aircraft, and a development contract of 20 billion US dollars. The US Department of Defense said on Tuesday that Boeing (BA.US) has been selected to build the US Navy's next generation stealth fighter. This is the second time in a row that Boeing has won a major fighter order. It also put an end to a project that was delayed for several months and is critical to America's Pacific strategy. Boeing defeated rival Northrop Grumman (NOC.US) in a development contract. The contract is worth $20 billion to produce the test aircraft. As production capacity climbs and potential overseas customers place orders, the project could grow to hundreds of billions of dollars over its entire life cycle. Boeing rose more than 2% in the premarket.
Robinhood (HOOD.US) is introducing another innovative product: weekend stock trading, performance contracts, and crypto perpetual futures. Robinhood plans to launch weekend stock trading, the first in the modern US market. The brokerage firm, which is one step ahead in extending retail trading hours, said on Tuesday that its clients will soon be able to trade a basket of selected stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over the weekend, thus further extending the current trading period from 8 p.m. on Sunday to 8 p.m. EST on Friday. This function will be implemented by routing orders to trading places operated by Bruce Markets. Robinhood's chief brokerage officer Steve Quirk said in a statement: “Breaking news won't wait for the opening bell.” Robinhood rose 2.7% in the premarket.
Key economic data and event forecasts
Changes in ADP employment numbers in the US in September at 20:15 Beijing time
20:30 Beijing time US monthly personal expenditure rate for August, US August PCE price index annual rate, US August core PCE price index annual rate, US August core PCE price index final value, US second-quarter GDP price index quarterly rate final value, US second-quarter core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate final value, US second-quarter consumer spending annualized quarterly rate final quarterly rate, US second-quarter implicit GDP deflator quarterly rate, US monthly wholesale inventory rate for August
At 9:45 Beijing time, the US Chicago PMI for September
At 22:30 Beijing time, US EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week ending September 25, US EIA gasoline inventory changes for the week ending September 25, US EIA refined oil inventory changes for the week ending September 25, US EIA Okahoma-Cushing crude oil inventory for the week ending September 25, US weekly EIA crude oil import changes for the week ending September 25
At 01:30 a.m. the next day, Beijing time, 2027 FOMC voting committee and Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin delivered a welcome speech at an event
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivered a speech at 03:25 a.m. Beijing time the next day
At 04:00 a.m. the next day, Beijing time, Micron announced financial results after the US stock market
At 05:10 a.m. the next day, Beijing time, 2027 FOMC voting committee and Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby delivered a speech
At 06:00 a.m. the next day Beijing time, 2026 FOMC voting committee and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Chairman Kashkari delivered a speech