J.P. Morgan said that although shipping is still at risk, crude oil flows from the Middle East have almost returned to pre-war levels. “The Middle East's oil export artery is being cleared again,” J.P. Morgan analyst Natasha Kaneva and others said in a September 29 report. For a region still at war, this is a “significant recovery,” although the recovery is uneven. According to J.P. Morgan's data, crude oil flow from the Middle East has now rebounded to 17.5 million b/d, equivalent to 98% of pre-war levels; shipments of refined oil products such as diesel and gasoline are 3 million b/d, which is equivalent to 58% of pre-war levels. The ten-day average for the past five days shows that the overall shipment volume has reached 89% of the 2025 level. Analysts said that crude oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz has almost “recovered to a high of nearly 13 million b/d in late June, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia.” “But higher transit traffic should not be mistaken for increased safety — rather, it reflects the industry's growing ability to operate under ongoing risk.”

J.P. Morgan said that although shipping is still at risk, crude oil flows from the Middle East have almost returned to pre-war levels. “The Middle East's oil export artery is being cleared again,” J.P. Morgan analyst Natasha Kaneva and others said in a September 29 report. For a region still at war, this is a “significant recovery,” although the recovery is uneven. According to J.P. Morgan's data, crude oil flow from the Middle East has now rebounded to 17.5 million b/d, equivalent to 98% of pre-war levels; shipments of refined oil products such as diesel and gasoline are 3 million b/d, which is equivalent to 58% of pre-war levels. The ten-day average for the past five days shows that the overall shipment volume has reached 89% of the 2025 level. Analysts said that crude oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz has almost “recovered to a high of nearly 13 million b/d in late June, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia.” “But higher transit traffic should not be mistaken for increased safety — rather, it reflects the industry's growing ability to operate under ongoing risk.”