Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | The property market ushered in great benefits! How can the mortgage interest rate discount policy reshape the real estate sector? (with concept shares)

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on September 29, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the General Administration of Financial Supervision issued a notice to support the rigid housing needs of urban and rural residents, deciding to implement a nationwide interest rate discount policy on residential home purchase loans to reduce the interest burden on commercial personal housing loans for households that have newly purchased their first home. The policy accurately points to the immediate needs of small to medium packages and low total prices, providing another important step for the stable development of the property market.

The policy will be implemented on October 1, 2026. The implementation period is tentatively set for 1 year. During this period, the managing bank will issue a new commercial personal housing loan for the first eligible home. The financial department will provide interest rate discount support of 1 percentage point annualized for a period of not more than 5 years based on the loan principal amount. The maximum loan size that a single household can enjoy at interest rates is 1 million yuan.

The relevant person in charge said that the central financial administration's implementation of the interest rate discount policy for residents' home purchase loans is an exploration of ways to guarantee and improve people's livelihood in the housing sector, helping families with relatively low incomes to “reduce monthly payments” when preparing to buy the most ordinary houses.

This time, the focus is mainly on the first housing that is just needed, and the focus is on supporting ordinary households to buy new small to medium housing units at lower prices. The conditions must be met: First, use a newly issued commercial personal housing loan to buy the first home, excluding stock loan replacement. Among them, the certification of “first housing” is carried out in accordance with the current policy, and includes both new and second-hand housing. Second, the construction area of the purchased housing is no more than 120 square meters. Third, the price of the purchased housing is no more than 1.5 million yuan.

According to a report by the China Index Research Institute, since 2026, the national real estate market is still in a continuous adjustment stage. First-tier cities are taking the lead in getting out of the adjustment period with strong urban competitiveness and continuous strength in policies.

In February, Shanghai took the lead in introducing the “Shanghai Seven Rules”. At the end of April, Shenzhen followed up and optimized the purchase restriction policy, and Guangzhou also introduced the “Sui Eight Rules” policy. In August, Beijing further optimized purchase restrictions, housing grants, and provident fund policies to lower entry thresholds and financial pressure for some homebuyers. Shanghai then introduced the “Shanghai Eight Rules” to further optimize policies such as withdrawing from the Provident Fund, down payment for a second home outside the Outer Ring Road, and “trade-in” subsidies.

The China Index Research Institute said that due to continued contraction in supply, the overall inventory scale of first-tier cities continued to decline, and the overall demolition cycle of newly built homes maintained a continuous improvement trend. The removal cycle of all cities showed a downward trend month-on-month and year-on-year.

Before the long holiday, the real estate market had already intensively issued a series of combo policies. On September 20, the newly revised “Regulations on the Administration of Housing Provident Funds” were officially implemented; in addition, on September 28, the Executive Meeting of the State Council clearly proposed that countercyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies will be strengthened, a number of practical and effective incremental policies will be introduced, and policies and measures to stabilize the real estate market and promote employment income growth.

Compared to previous macroeconomic regulation policies, the biggest difference in interest rate cuts this time is the adoption of a collaborative policy of “precise fiscal backing+targeted monetary easing”. Judging from the overall situation in the real estate market, the impact of this policy on second-tier and third-tier cities where total housing prices are within the policy range may be more direct.

Ordinary second- and third-tier cities benefit greatly. The total price of mainstream demand in the central western and northeastern provincial capitals is concentrated in the range of 1 million to 2 million yuan. A large number of newly needed housing falls within the scope of the policy, which can effectively support the entry of the first group into the market and consolidate the pace of market consolidation.

Liu Yunlong, an investment adviser at Guorong Securities, said that the combination of fiscal and monetary policies has formed clear precise and targeted support for immediate needs, and has a more direct effect than previous comprehensive policies; while activating immediate demand, driving the market to stop falling and stabilize, and improving expectations, the policy does not support high-end improvements and speculative demand, and is more accurate.

Liu Yunlong suggested that investment prioritizes state-owned assets, steady cash flow, and project positioning. Such companies can benefit more directly from policies, eliminate inventory faster, and are also expected to achieve valuation repairs and stock price rebound sooner. The richer the cash and immediate project reserves, the greater the flexibility. At the same time, he suggested that the effects of this round of policy stimulus are themselves fragmented and structural, and that some regional housing enterprises will have a longer repair cycle.

Wu Wei, chief investment adviser of Datong Securities, believes that future improvements in the fundamentals of the property market will be K-shaped: leading high-quality housing enterprises in core cities will take the lead in stabilizing and increasing their share, while housing enterprises with a third- and fourth-tier layout and tight capital chains will continue to face clean-up. It is recommended to focus on two directions: first, leading high-quality housing enterprises with stable finances, low debt, and abundant land reserves in core cities; the second is the post-cycle direction of real estate. As second-hand housing transactions and improved demand pick up, the intermediary business is asset-light and can benefit quickly with transaction volume. The property sector has strong cyclical resistance and can be used as a defensive arrangement.

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