The head of US interest rate research at Barclays Capital said in the report that there is room for the US 30-year Treasury yield to rise to 6% because this month's sell-off in the US bond market has not taken into account the risk that productivity growth will continue to rise. Anshul Pradhan wrote that the market “still assumes that the currently high neutral interest rate will eventually prove to be cyclical rather than structural.” In this cyclical framework, investors expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to curb inflation, but “don't see this rise as permanent.” Pradhan wrote that the main challenge facing this view is increased economic productivity. US tech giants are expected to spend on AI infrastructure this year as much as the combined spending of the past three years.

The head of US interest rate research at Barclays Capital said in the report that there is room for the US 30-year Treasury yield to rise to 6% because this month's sell-off in the US bond market has not taken into account the risk that productivity growth will continue to rise. Anshul Pradhan wrote that the market “still assumes that the currently high neutral interest rate will eventually prove to be cyclical rather than structural.” In this cyclical framework, investors expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to curb inflation, but “don't see this rise as permanent.” Pradhan wrote that the main challenge facing this view is increased economic productivity. US tech giants are expected to spend on AI infrastructure this year as much as the combined spending of the past three years.