Arjun Vijay, portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said that after undergoing a major revaluation of yields, the current long-term valuation of global treasury bonds is quite reasonable. “Market returns have completed a significant round of revaluation, shifting from anticipating interest rate cuts to forecasting further policy tightening.” “At the same time, we believe that the actual yield is likely to remain structurally higher than the level of the past decade. The reasons behind this include continuing fiscal deficits, the shift from quantitative easing to quantitative downsizing, and high demand for capital expenditure due to artificial intelligence and infrastructure spending.” “Therefore, without clear catalysts, such as falling energy prices, a further decline in core inflation, or a significant slowdown in economic growth, it is difficult to see large-scale sell-offs from the current position, and it will be difficult to break out of the continuing bond bull market.” “At current prices, the overall long-term valuation is basically reasonable. We see no good reason to go long or short for a long time.”

Arjun Vijay, portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, said that after undergoing a major revaluation of yields, the current long-term valuation of global treasury bonds is quite reasonable. “Market returns have completed a significant round of revaluation, shifting from anticipating interest rate cuts to forecasting further policy tightening.” “At the same time, we believe the actual yield is likely to remain structurally higher than the level of the past decade. The reasons behind this include continuing fiscal deficits, the shift from quantitative easing to quantitative downsizing, and high demand for capital expenditure due to artificial intelligence and infrastructure spending.” “Therefore, without clear catalysts, such as falling energy prices, a further decline in core inflation, or a significant slowdown in economic growth, it is difficult to see large-scale sell-offs from the current position, and it will be difficult to break out of the continuing bond bull market.” “At current prices, the overall long-term valuation is basically reasonable. We see no good reason to go long or short for a long time.”