Crypto explosion surpasses consensus by 87%: Goldman Sachs fine-tunes HOOD target

Goldman Sachs (GS.US) raised the 12-month price target for Robin Hood (HOOD.US) slightly from $144 to $145, according to Woofun AI, and maintained the buy rating. This adjustment did not stem from a single level of optimism, but rather a recalibration of the profit model based on structural exceeding expectations in September transaction data and changes in the macro interest rate environment. Although the valuation multiples have been compressed, the resilience of core fundamentals still supports the upward logic of its stock price.

The preliminary monthly data report released on September 28, 2026 revealed significant differentiation in the composition of HOOD's business. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, crypto trading volume reached US$21.9 billion, up 21% month-on-month, 87% higher than market consensus and 17% higher than Goldman Sachs's previous forecast; event contract volume surged 37% month-on-month, 36% higher than market consensus, and 6% higher than Goldman Sachs's previous forecast. The explosion of these two non-traditional asset classes became the most prominent part of the September data. In contrast, although traditional stock and options volumes declined by 2% and 1%, respectively, month-on-month, they were still strong, 17% and 43% higher than market consensus, respectively. HOOD App's adjusted total turnover in September was $13.55 billion. From a year-on-year perspective, stock turnover increased 38% year over year, and options increased 32% year over year, indicating that retail trading activity continues to be higher than the same period last year, and traditional businesses have not shrunk due to the rise of emerging businesses.

Analyst James Yaro pointed out that the increase in revenue forecasts was mainly driven by two factors: first, the performance of the above transaction volume exceeded expectations, and the other was a steeper interest rate curve. Goldman Sachs updated its forward interest rate curve model, implying that the federal funds rate will increase by about 3.5 more times by the end of 2027, which directly supports HOOD's net interest income. According to this, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026-2028 net revenue forecast by 1%, 4%, and 4%, respectively. Specifically, the 2026 net revenue forecast was raised from $5359.4 million to $5404.8 million, from $6852 million to $7104 million in 2027, and from $7927.7 million to $8272.2 million in 2028.

At the same time, adjusted costs were raised by 1%, 4%, and 6%, respectively. In terms of earnings per share, adjusted earnings per share declined slightly from $2.53 to $2.51 (change -1%) in 2026, from $3.18 to $3.30 in 2027 (change +4%), and from $3.76 to $3.89 (change +3%) in 2028.

Revisions to the valuation logic offset some of the profit benefits. Goldman Sachs lowered the Q5 to Q8 price-earnings ratio by 1.5 to 40 times to reflect the downward shift in the overall valuation center of the market. The current price target of $145 corresponds to approximately 44x the price-earnings ratio of 2027 earnings of $3.30 per share. Given the current share price of $116.46, this means 24.5% upside. As a retail trading platform, HOOD's high growth attributes make its valuation multiplier higher than that of traditional brokerage firms, but the key to maintaining a valuation multiple of 40 times or more is the sustainability of crypto and event contract turnover, the actual trend of interest rate curves, and the pace of new product launches. This is an important revaluation of the HOOD valuation system by the market following the transformation of the trading volume structure.