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Is Old National Bancorp (ONB) Undervalued As Its Shares Trade Below Fair Value?

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Old National Bancorp (ONB) has drawn fresh attention after recent trading left the share price at about $25.21, with returns down roughly 2% over the past month and past 3 months.

Recent trading has taken some heat out of Old National Bancorp’s momentum, with the 30 day share price return down 2.48% and the 90 day share price return down 2.66%, even as the year to date share price return is 11.8% and the 1 year total shareholder return is 17.28%.

Scan beyond Old National Bancorp and compare its recent pullback with a curated group of banks and financials using the 30 resilient stocks with low risk scores.

Old National Bancorp now trades well below both analyst targets and one intrinsic value estimate, creating a wide gap between market price and modeled worth. Does that discount signal mispricing, or a fair reflection of risk?

Most Popular Narrative: 16% Undervalued

Old National Bancorp’s most followed valuation storyline pins fair value at $30.00, above the recent $25.21 close, framing the current discount around fee resilience and margin pressure.

ONB's strong performance in expanding its fee-based businesses (wealth, mortgage, and capital markets) and well-controlled expenses, along with increasing organic noninterest income, are supported by the demographic shift of the aging U.S. population, which is likely to further boost demand for wealth management and trust services, generating higher recurring revenue and improving earnings stability.

See why 14 investors see Old National Bancorp as 16% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $30.00 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the narrative could shift quickly if commercial real estate stress affects credit quality or if ONB’s Midwest concentration amplifies any regional slowdown.

Find out about the key risks to this Old National Bancorp narrative.

Next Steps

Mixed messages around Old National Bancorp’s discount, risks, and upside potential only go so far, so move quickly and test the thesis against the data yourself. To weigh both sides of the story in one place, take a look at the 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.