Open Source Securities: Continuing the policy tone, the bank's dividend attributes are better

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report saying that interest rate framework reform has entered a period of normalization, and banks with perfect FTP pricing systems and strong ability to allocate various types of assets have an advantage. Prefer banks with clear debt cost advantages and stable core deposits. Increased countercyclical adjustment and accelerated fiscal strength are expected to drive marginal improvements in economic expectations. Urban commercial banks with high regional prosperity, strong credit pricing power, and strong performance certainty are preferred.

The main views of Open Source Securities are as follows:

The regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China for the third quarter of 2026 was held on September 19

Judging the economic situation: Under challenges such as a more complex and changing external environment and weak domestic supply and demand, it presents structural optimization characteristics of “overall stability, new momentum, and excellent structure”. However, the expression “focus on expanding domestic demand” to “strengthening” shows an increase in demand to expand domestic demand (RMB loans increased by only 60 billion yuan in August).

Monetary policy tone: Continue “moderate easing”, delete “cross-cycle”, increase the importance of countercyclical adjustment, and add “comprehensive application and timely adjustment of monetary policy tools” to continue the relevant statements of the July Politburo meeting. The policy mechanism expression is condensed into “promoting the reform and improvement of the monetary policy operating framework”, consistent with the “15th Five-Year Plan” monetary policy framework system (downsizing quantitative intermediation goals and improving the basic currency investment mechanism). Price regulation is being deepened, improved and normalized. The importance of bank asset liability management and debt cost control has increased, and the growth logic is shifting to “improving structure and efficiency.” The short-term FTP change within banks will be implemented.

Understanding policy ideas from a bank's perspective: excellent structure, easy credit, stable interest spreads, and risk prevention

Credit: Under the demand to “slow down and improve the quality” of loans and reduce scale, the impact of changes in the banking structure has increased. (1) In line with Chairman Pan's explanation of “Deeply Understanding China's Financial Structure Changes and Improving the Adaptability of Financial Services to the Real Economy” in Qiushi, the asset side of banks needs to dynamically optimize credit structures and financial investment structures among various types of assets; expand stable funding sources and manage term structures on the debt side. (2) The construction of a new “six network” has been added to key support areas. New policy financial instruments and PSL of 800 billion yuan may provide targeted support during the year, which will help enterprises follow up the increase in medium- and long-term loans, and more of the increase in public loans will come from related fields.

Pricing: Interest rate cuts are expected to be low. LPR stabilizes asset-side returns, and “timely adjustments” maintain flexibility. The Fed's restarting interest rate hike of 25BP brings exchange rate restrictions, interest rate cuts, or setbacks to avoid intensifying deposit movements; in addition, residents and entities have not yet been repaired, and small interest rate cuts have limited demand to stimulate demand, which will amplify the “risk of base differences” where assets are repriced faster than liabilities.

Financial investment: Continue to pay attention to long-term yield changes. Banks manage bond allocations for a long period of time or cash out financial investment surpluses. As of September 27, 2026, the issuance progress of local government bonds was 81%, behind the schedule of the past 4 years, with about 990 billion yuan to be issued in the fourth quarter; compounding the volume of new policy financial instruments, banks needed to free up long-term financial investment amounts, or increase circulation and cash out surpluses.

Exchange rate risk: The risk of exchange rate fluctuations increases in the weight of bank asset management. Added “adhering to the decisive role of the market in exchange rate formation while preventing market flock effects and self-strengthening of irrational expectations”, the stability or decline of foreign currency deposits, and fluctuations or increases in the scale of products linked to the exchange rate, such as structured deposits.

Risk warning: net interest spreads narrowed beyond expectations; risk exposure in some regions; implementation of monetary policy instruments fell short of expectations, etc.