Orient Securities: Overall profit pressure on the automobile industry, commercial vehicles and the profitability of some high-quality parts companies improved against the market

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Oriental Securities released a research report saying that the overall profit and gross margin performance of automobile companies was weak due to external factors such as domestic demand pressure, increased market competition, and rising raw material prices and exchange rate fluctuations in the second quarter. However, after excluding the effects of exchange, some companies with strong comprehensive competitiveness and high management efficiency still achieved year-on-year improvements in net profit and gross margin of return to their homes; it is expected that continued growth in exports and a marginal weakening of the influence of exchange in the second half of the year will promote marginal improvements in the performance of some competitive companies. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the marginal improvement in the performance of some highly competitive offshore vehicle and liquid-cooled vehicle industries. Chain, gas generator/diesel engine industry chain, humanoid robot chain company.

Orient Securities's main views are as follows:

The industry's revenue increased slightly in the second quarter, and the profit side was under year-on-year pressure

In the first half of 2026, the automobile industry (including listed and unlisted companies) had revenue of 5.19 trillion yuan, up 1.9% year on year; total profit was 19.35 billion yuan, down 20.1% year on year. The automobile industry's revenue for the second quarter (including listed and unlisted companies) was 2.78 trillion yuan, up 3.2% year on year, up 15.1% month on month; total profit was 117 billion yuan, down 21.9% year on year, up 49.3% month on month. It is expected that high oil prices and weak macroeconomic conditions will still suppress domestic demand for fuel vehicles in the second half of the year, but the high export growth trend is expected to continue, and the impact on exchange is expected to weaken marginally. The automobile industry's revenue and profitability are expected to remain stable in the second half of the year.

profit

The overall profit of the industry in the second quarter was under pressure. The company was significantly divided. Excluding some companies with strong foreign exchange competitiveness, the profit performance was better than average. The total revenue of the automotive industry in the second quarter (data caliber is SW passenger cars and SW commercial vehicles) was 613.525 billion yuan, up 0.5% year on year and 19.2% month on month. The revenue of the parts industry in the second quarter (data caliber is SW auto parts) was 412.155 billion yuan, up 9.7% year on year and 9.5% month on month. The revenue performance of automakers in the second quarter was divided, and the revenue level of most parts companies increased year-on-year in the second quarter. The year-on-year decline in net profit of the parts industry in the second quarter was less than that of the automotive industry. The overall gross margin performance of passenger car companies was divided in the 2nd quarter, and the overall gross margin of commercial vehicle companies was under year-on-year pressure; in the 2nd quarter, the overall profit margin of passenger car companies was under year-on-year pressure, and commercial vehicle companies' overall profits improved; in the 2nd quarter, the profit growth rate of most parts companies slowed due to external factors such as exchange rate fluctuations and rising raw material prices. After excluding the impact of exchange, it is expected that the year-on-year profit growth rate of some parts companies in the 2nd quarter will improve significantly. The performance is superior to the auto parts industry average.

inventory

The share of automakers in inventory increased in the second quarter, and the overall inventory turnover of the industry was under year-on-year pressure. Vehicle inventories increased significantly in the second quarter, and parts manufacturers' inventories continued to increase slightly, accounting for a relatively stable share of current assets. Vehicle inventories have increased, mainly due to the increase in inventories of some car companies; inventory in the parts industry accounts for 22.1% of current assets, and the performance is relatively stable from month to month. At the end of the second quarter, the average inventory turnover days of automakers increased year-on-year. The overall inventory turnover of parts companies was under pressure, and there was internal differentiation.

cash flow

Vehicle cash flow was divided in the second quarter, and parts companies improved overall. Vehicle cash flow declined slightly year-on-year in the second quarter, and parts companies improved overall; passenger car and parts companies' cash flow performance was fragmented, and commercial vehicle companies performed better than passenger cars.

Risk Alerts

The macroeconomic downturn affects automobile demand, the impact of fluctuations in upstream raw material prices, and the price war pressure on car companies.