US stock outlook | Futures of the three major stock indexes soared, chip stocks, Optical Communications stocks rallied before the market, and ARM (ARM.US) rose more than 4%
Pre-market market trends
1. On September 25 (Friday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.41%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.40%, and NASDAQ futures were up 0.73%.
US chip stocks and optical communications stocks rallied ahead of the market. ARM rose more than 4%. The stock fell nearly 8% yesterday, SanDisk rose more than 2%, AMD, SK Hynix, and Western Digital rose nearly 2%, and Micron Technology and Intel rose about 1%. Optical Communications stocks surged ahead of the market. Coherent rose nearly 3%, Lumentum and Mywell Technology rose about 2%, and Corning and Applied Optoelectronics rose nearly 2%.
2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 0.83%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.32%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.27%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.82%.
3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 2.42% to $92.32 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 1.67% to $104.82 per barrel.
Market news
The Federal Reserve plans to raise the threshold of bank supervision. Sources said that the FED is developing a plan to raise the asset threshold that triggers stricter supervision of large banks. This move will save some lenders from expensive additional regulatory costs and may promote industry integration. The Federal Reserve is expected to soon propose to readjust the threshold for banks to undergo balance sheet stress tests, liquidity, capital, and other stricter regulatory rules to reflect inflation and economic growth factors. Three people familiar with the matter said that the Federal Reserve is expected to propose these adjustments later this year.
The Bank of Japan's inflation index is rising at an accelerated pace, providing a basis for further interest rate hikes. The Bank of Japan's index for measuring potential inflation accelerated last month and has far exceeded the target level. This provides a basis for continuing to raise the benchmark interest rate. According to a report released by the Bank of Japan on Friday, consumer prices (CPI) excluding fresh food and special factors rose 2.6% year on year in August, an acceleration from 2.3% in July. Special factors include government subsidies for gasoline and utilities. The indicator excluding fresh food, energy and special factors rose to 1.8% from 1.6% in July.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management is under-allocated to large cloud service providers, and the wave of bond issuance is expected to continue. Goldman Sachs Asset Management believes that as a large number of new bonds pour into the market, the company is currently the largest borrower in the field of low-allocation artificial intelligence, and it is expected that hyperscale cloud service providers will also issue large amounts of debt. Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-industry fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said in an interview with the media on Thursday: “We think hyperscale cloud service providers will issue a large number of bonds. We are under-allocating to this sector overall because we know there will be more bond supply.” “This has continued throughout this year, and new bond issues are replacing existing bonds,” Rosner said.
The yen recorded its biggest one-day increase in more than two weeks. On Friday, the yen rose 0.6% to 157.95 yen per dollar, the best performance among G10 currencies. Japan's Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki said that during a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi this week, US President Trump expressed concern about the depreciation of the yen; Sanae Takaichi responded that the undervaluation of the yen was a problem. Katayama Satsuki said that after consulting the Prime Minister's residence, she disclosed some details of the talks and said that Japan will continue to maintain close communication with US Treasury Secretary Bezent on a range of issues, including foreign exchange.
Wall Street faces a new pattern of interest rates, and the 5% US Treasury yield may become the norm or even the lower limit. As US Treasury yields break through one high after another, Wall Street and Washington are becoming increasingly aware of a reality: this may not just be a round of decline in the bond market, but a fundamental shift. Multiple factors have combined to drive up the US government's borrowing costs, including the price of oil at $100 per barrel, a boom in artificial intelligence investment, and a huge US budget deficit that has driven debt to a record $40 trillion. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve remains determined to reduce inflation, which has remained above target for many years. Today, yields on almost all US benchmark treasury bonds are hovering around 5% or higher, with the 5-year US Treasury yield breaking 5% for the first time since 2007 on Wednesday.
El Niño stirs up palm oil: Indonesian and Malaysian production is expected to drop 3% in 2027, and the price may rise to 1,226 US dollars. Continued droughts caused by strong El Niño will depress yields next year, and palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to decline in 2027, thereby tightening global supply and driving up prices. According to the median market estimate from a survey of seven analysts, the combined production of the world's two largest palm oil producers is expected to drop by about 3%. Among them, Indonesia's production is expected to drop to 49 million tons, and Malaysia's production is expected to drop to 19.5 million tons. Analysts said that, combined with Indonesia's expanding palm-based biodiesel blending policy and declining yield of aging palm trees, continued droughts may curb supply and push the benchmark palm oil price to 5,000 ringgit (1,226 US dollars) per ton in 2027.
Individual stock news
COST.US (COST.US) Q4 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, and paid membership growth fell short of expectations. Market openers announced the results for the fourth fiscal quarter of the 2026 fiscal quarter ending August 30 after the US stock market on Thursday. According to the data, the total revenue of Market Opener Q4 increased 11% year-on-year to US$95.72 billion, better than market expectations; adjusted earnings per share were 6.57 US dollars, which was also better than market expectations, and tariff refunds contributed 15 cents per share. The data also showed that in the fourth fiscal quarter, membership fee revenue increased 7% to US$1.85 billion, slightly higher than market expectations. The increase in the number of paid members over the same period was lower than expected. The company's stock price did not change much during after-hours trading. In a conference call with analysts on Thursday, executives said that the market opener's gasoline and travel business performed well, while household goods, small electronics and beauty products also led to sales growth. Adjusted same-store sales increased 6.7% for the quarter, better than expected.
Tesla (TSLA.US) officially announced the commencement of mass production and delivery of Semi electric trucks, reaffirming the target of 50,000 vehicles per year. On September 25, Tesla (TSLA.US) announced that the Semi electric truck will begin mass production and delivery. Tesla executives previously said at the Sparks plant in Nevada that delivery of the Semi to the first batch of customers will begin this week. Nearly nine years have passed since CEO Elon Musk first unveiled this electric heavy truck. Designed specifically for long-haul freight, the Semi expands Tesla from the electric car and SUV market to the commercial freight sector. The company did not disclose production plans or pricing for the Semi, but reiterated plans to produce 50,000 Semis per year at the Nevada plant.
With a maximum discount of 7,000 yuan, Tesla (TSLA.US) once again reduced the price. Tesla announced the latest preferential policies. If you place an order before October 31, 2026 (inclusive), all Model 3 models will be discounted by 5,000 yuan for a limited time, and the final payment for some Model Y models will be discounted by 7,000 yuan. At the same time, you can enjoy the “5 year 0 interest, 8,000 yuan limited-time car paint optional benefits, and special charging benefits” combination benefits. In addition, some Model 3 models will enjoy an insurance subsidy of 8,000 yuan. After enjoying the above policy benefits, the price of Model 3 starts at 222,500 yuan, and the price of Model Y starts at 256,500 yuan.
Musk revealed the Colossus 2 expansion schedule: the number of Nvidia (NVDA.US) chips may more than double before the end of the year. Elon Musk said that the number of Nvidia (NVDA.US) chips installed in Colossus 2, an AI computing power cluster built by its subsidiary XAI company, may more than double the number of Nvidia (NVDA.US) chips by the end of this year. XAI is now merged into SpaceX (SPCX.US). He is speeding up the expansion of his computing power. Musk posted on X that Colossus 2 currently has 110,000 Nvidia GB200 chips and 440,000 GB300 chips. He also said that 220,000 GB300 chips will be put into use next week, and another 220,000 are expected to be put into use in November. If “lucky,” another 220,000 chips may be launched by the end of December.
Key economic data and event forecasts
20:30 Beijing time: Monthly rate of US durable goods orders in August
22:00 Beijing time: Final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in September