Macro was all wrong, only BTC broke through: Cowen admits bearish mistake

According to Woofun AI, cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen pointed out on Thursday that the current market is showing a bizarre situation of 'putting the horse upside down': all his bearish logic based on macroeconomics has been verified, except Bitcoin bucked the trend and strengthened, breaking the expectations of traditional asset linkage.

The deterioration of macroeconomic fundamentals is spreading across traditional markets. Continued rise in oil prices pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield to 5.1%, while the Federal Reserve's response seemed slow and failed to contain inflationary pressure by raising interest rates in a timely manner. The two-year US Treasury yield, which is a reference indicator for neutral interest rates, soared 20 basis points to 4.9% in a single day. In contrast, the federal funds rate remained at 4%. Cowan believes this means that the policy level is a full one percentage point lower than the standard required to control inflation. Rising yields and the strengthening of the US dollar caused the S&P 500 index to stagnate after peaking in mid-August. Gold and silver also showed weak performance, falling within the weak range of mid-September to mid-October predicted by Cowen.

Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that in the context where the above macro indicators comprehensively point to risk aversion, neither traditional safe-haven nor risk assets have been spared.

However, Bitcoin's technical trend has fundamentally reversed. Cowen compared the current situation with historical cases: previously, Bitcoin's closing price was above the 50-week moving average for only two weeks, and the one in 2015 was eventually proven to be a false breakthrough. Although Bitcoin did experience a round of bull markets after that, it hit a new low in the early stages of the breakthrough. Cowen admits that he previously only gave Bitcoin a 35% chance of bottoming out, a judgment that damaged its short-term credibility. Now that the price of Bitcoin has broken through its May high, he has revised his opinion and believes that the market trend has clearly turned bullish. He stressed that the weekly closing price is a key signal to confirm the formation of a bottom. If the price falls below $83,000, it may trigger the fourth-quarter retracement he initially anticipated, but it won't necessarily reach a new low. He cited the case of silver in 2012 as a warning: even if the weekly closing failed for a while, it eventually broke out of the upward trend, suggesting that short-term fluctuations should not overshadow long-term trends.

Faced with the divergence between macro data and Bitcoin's trend, Cowen concluded that the other four data items all suggest caution, while Bitcoin points completely in the opposite direction. He said bluntly that 'the market doesn't have to be logical' and emphasized that before Bitcoin's trend structure substantially changes, traders should prioritize price trends as the basis for judgment rather than being bound by macroeconomic theory.