BTC returns above average, $9.67K becomes key resistance

According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin has regained its position in the key cost area that suppressed the market during the year, and the market focus quickly changed from confirmation at the bottom to a game of high rebound. Currently, profit settlement pressure is still slight, and ETF buying is showing an upward trend. The next core resistance level is locked at $96,700 near the average MVRV price.

This structural breakthrough marks a shift in market sentiment from defense to exploratory offense, but whether the breakthrough can continue, we still need to observe subsequent changes in capital flow and chip distribution.

Judging from on-chain depth indicators, the low in the current round of the bear market shows significant historical differences. Achieving the price, as the average purchase cost of all bitcoins in circulation, was suppressed below the price for several months in a row during the 2018 to 2019 and 2022 to 2023 bear markets.

However, in this cycle, the price never closed below the realized price on a daily basis. The June low was always higher than the realized price, a phenomenon not seen in any bear market lows since 2017. If the price remains stable above the real market average, the June low will be the shallowest retracement in the past three-round bear market. In terms of loss margin, the share of profitable supply fell to roughly the same level as the November 2022 low at the June low, and the number of lost chips was also close to the previous bear market. However, the key difference is the depth of losses. The net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL), which measures the entire market's book profit and loss, never turned negative in this round, yet both fell deep into a negative zone in 2018 and 2022. Smaller loss margins usually mean lighter selling pressure, which provides basic support for the current rebound.

The distribution of key support and resistance levels further clarified the short-term trading range. In August, there was still a dispute that the market rebound was only squeezed by bears, but now the price is in the cost zone that suppressed the market during the year. The largest chip for long-term holders is at $84,000-$85,000, slightly below the current price, forming a solid bottom support. The next major on-chain resistance is the average MVRV price, which is around $9.67 million. This price is equal to the achieved price multiplied by Bitcoin's long-term average MVRV, which corresponds to the return of average holder profit to a long-term normal position. The break-even point of chips bought near the top of the range a year or two ago also fell roughly in this area. In the downward direction, the real market average of $77,000 is the main support. If $8.4 million is maintained, the path to $9.67 million is still open; if it falls below $8.4 million again, $77,000 will re-enter the field of view and become a new defensive bottom line.

The derivatives market's signals also point to this resistance zone. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, Deribit Options' market maker positions quickly piled up within a day, forming a complex Gamma structure. Positive gamma around the $95,000 exercise price rose to the highest reading on the chart, while negative gamma piled up between spot and $92,000. Gamma describes how market makers hedge options. Between spot and $92,000, hedging behavior shows buying when rising and selling when falling, which may accelerate fluctuations; in contrast, when close to $95,000, hedging tends to calm prices. This position is slightly below the average MVRV of $9.67 million, so if the rebound continues, $95,000-9.7,000 will be the first critical test. The accumulation of options positions at the top of the range suggests that the region will face intense long and short games.

The comparison between selling pressure and capital flow reveals the real dynamics within the market. Rapid gains are usually accompanied by large profit settlements, but the weekly net profit and loss during the current round of gains was only a fraction of the top levels in 2024 and 2025. The current pace is more like the beginning of the previous uptrend. Profit settlement remained on a similar scale from the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024, and only then did a larger sell-off occur. Short-term holders have made almost all profits, and their share of profitable supply has crossed the “sell line” that was often accompanied by a recovery in selling pressure in the past. This line was crossed both in the early stages of recovery in 2019 and 2023, and near the top in 2021 and 2025. This signal alone is not enough to determine the next direction. The overall profit realized in the market is still low, and the motivation to sell has not yet been transformed into a large-scale sell-off.

Meanwhile, the US Spot ETF (IBIT.US) had a net inflow of about 1.3 billion US dollars in the five days after the current round of squeezing began, followed by a net outflow for two consecutive weeks. The most recent trading day recorded the largest single-day inflow since the beginning of July, and capital increased purchases as prices rose. The 24-hour spot volume across exchanges has more than doubled from the August low, rising 121% since the rebound began. From the end of 2025 to the middle of this year, every increase in spot transactions occurred in a downward phase, which was a capital-style sell-off. August interrupted this sequence and became the first time in a year that the price increase was accompanied by an increase.

Although the seven-day average is still about 30% lower than a year ago, this indicates that the market is recovering from the bottom. If it continues to stand in the pre-rebound range, it will confirm that this is a more stable buy.

The reshaping of the exchange landscape reflects the trend towards decentralization of capital flows. Over the past 24 months, Gate has risen 4 places, making it the most volatile exchange, and currently ranks third in Bitcoin spot trading volume. Poloniex rose 3 places, Bybit rose 1 place, and four other companies declined over the same period. Gate's rise is not a single month. In the past 24 months, it has remained in the top three for 9 months, and its share of covering spot transactions has risen from 2.0% two years ago to 9.1% now, an increase of 7.1 percentage points, the highest among all companies. Leading platforms are an exception. Binance ranks first every month and still accounts for around 31% of spot transactions covered. What follows is widespread rotation rather than the rise of a single challenger; in terms of share, it is more scattered: in two years, 9 exchanges gained shares, 3 lost shares, and most of them were concentrated in the lower part of the list. This shows that there is real competition among exchanges. The return of capital into multiple order books at the same time, rather than being concentrated in a single location, is a broader and healthier foundation for the market.

The divergence between altcoin performance and leverage risk provides an additional margin of safety. Over the past week, 72.5% of the altcoins in the tracking range outperformed Bitcoin, while in the August squeeze, the highest percentage was only 39%. However, traders did not significantly increase leverage. Coin-based counterfeit perpetual contract holdings have hardly grown in 30 days, and less than half of the market is increasing their positions. During the overheated phase of February 2021 and December 2024, the same indicator rose sharply, and most markets were increasing their positions.

The rise in altcoins in this round is mainly driven by spot buying, and sudden large-scale forced liquidation is even less likely. A full jump in positions is a sign that the market is starting to overheat. As of 12:00 UTC on September 22, 2026, the spot volume is a strictly settled daily sequence, covering the set of exchanges covered by Glassnode. On-chain daily metrics, ETF fund flows, and options data are as of September 21, 2026, and hourly prices as of September 23.

Bitcoin has reached the real market average and the chip zone for long-term holders that suppressed prices for much of 2026. The June low was always above the realized price; if held at $77,000, this would be the shallowest bearish low since 2017. Profit settlements were weak, ETF buying rebounded, and altcoins rose with little added leverage. The next test is between $95,000—$97,000, where the options position intersects with the average MVRV price. Retaining $8.4 million, the upward path is still open; if it falls below $8.4 million again and falls further below $77,000, the sustainability of the rebound will be questioned.