XRP now has three bullish signals, but a weak October history is overshadowed

According to Woofun AI, after recovering part of the September increase on Thursday, the price of XRP fell back to about $1.50, a 24-hour decline of 6.3%, but the cumulative increase this week still exceeded 15.6%. The market showed three key bullish signals in the overall rebound trend, although the risk of historical seasonal weakness in October is gradually approaching.

Judging from holders' sentiment and the popularity of derivatives speculation, there is a marked differentiation in the market structure. According to Santiment data, XRP's 365-day MVRV ratio is around -11.75%, meaning that long-term holders who have bought in the past year are on average in a loss. Although this value is higher than Dogecoin's -19.26%, it is slightly lower than Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Chainlink's level of slightly above 0%. A lower MVRV ratio usually means less profit settlement pressure, thereby limiting further stock price declines. Historical experience shows that buying during periods of market downturn often brings better long-term investment opportunities.

Meanwhile, data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the value of open XRP futures contracts on the Binance platform has risen to nearly $600 million, which is comparable to January's level, and significantly above the 180-day moving average of about US$445 million. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that positive funding rates indicate that buyers are driving up positions, which indicates a resurgence of speculative activity after several months of sluggishness. The return of positive sentiment in the derivatives market is beneficial to the current upward trend, but if the value of unclosed contracts is too high, it may pose risks. The current situation is still manageable.

In terms of capital flow, the XRP Spot ETF (XRPC.US) has shown rare stability. Since mid-July, the XRP ETF (XRPC.US) has received net inflows for 11 consecutive weeks, including the current week ending September 23, according to SosoValue data. In contrast, the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT.US) had outflows of up to $462.7 million in the week ending September 11, and there were outflows in the past 3 weeks; Ethereum-related products (ETHA.US) also lost $140 million in the week ending September 18.

Although the XRP ETF (XRPC.US) has a small weekly net inflow, mostly between $1 million and $20 million, reaching $111.5 million in the week ending August 28 alone, its total cumulative net inflow has reached $1.75 billion.

However, demand indicators in the spot market are not fully synchronized. CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain pointed out that XRP's premium rate on Coinbase (COIN.US) has dropped to about 0.0055% compared to Binance. This indicator, which is generally regarded as a reflection of the purchasing power of the US spot market, currently shows that demand is not strong, and there is no sign of a continuing premium.

Historical seasonal factors cast a shadow over future trends. According to CryptoRank data, in the past 13 years, XRP stock prices have all declined in October, with an average monthly decline of 5.14% and an increase of 11.9% in October last year. Against the backdrop of three bullish signals intertwined with historically weak months, whether spot buyers on Coinbase (COIN.US) will join the ranks of ETF investors will be a key variable in determining whether the upward momentum can continue.