UBS: The average waiting time for Apple (AAPL.US) iPhones remained roughly the same year over year after excluding China

The Zhitong Finance App learned that UBS released a research report saying that maintaining Apple (AAPL.US)'s “neutral” rating and target price of $296 is equivalent to about 29 times the bank's mixed forecast earnings forecast of $10.31 per share for the 2027/2028 calendar year.

According to the bank's data tracking the supply of Apple iPhones in more than 30 regions, the average waiting time for Pro and Pro Max increased by about 3 days and 2 days, respectively, on a weekly basis. The average year-on-year gap between the two models was about 1 day less, an improvement from 2 days less than the initial value last week. After excluding the gap of 4 days less than in China, waiting times remained roughly the same in all regions, indicating marginal or improving demand trends.

According to the bank, the average waiting time for the iPhone 18 Pro Max is about 24 days, about 25 days for the 17 Pro Max and 23 days for the 16 Pro Max; about 17 days for the iPhone 18 Pro, about 18 days for the 17 Pro and 17 for the 16 Pro. The wait time before Duo's release in October is an important observation, and the iPhone supply situation in China is worth watching, as previous surveys showed that local interest in folding machines, especially Apple folding machines, is higher than in other markets.

The bank kept the iPhone forecast unchanged. It estimated that iPhone revenue for the September quarter of 2026 was $55.9 billion, up 14% year on year, and 55 million units were shipped, up 2.8% year on year; iPhone revenue for fiscal year 2026 was 252.4 billion US dollars, up 20.4% year on year, and 261 million units were shipped, up 15.4% year on year.