Huachuang Securities: AIDC opens up incremental space for gas power generation equipment to resonate with the small combustion and gas engine boom

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that global demand for gas power generation equipment is moving upward, traditional electricity demand provides a basic market, and AIDC is an important new variable in this round. Under a neutral scenario, global demand for combustion engines is expected to increase from 81.4 GW in 2026 to 99.0 GW in 2030. The current gas power generation equipment boom is driven by traditional electricity demand and AIDC's new load. Gas engines benefit from market expansion and expansion of backup power to main power supply scenarios, and demand growth is more flexible; small to medium fuel supply constraints are prominent, and the product power segment matches AIDC's modular power supply requirements.

The main views of Huachuang Securities are as follows:

Global demand for gas power generation equipment has moved upward, traditional electricity demand provides a basic market, and AIDC forms an important new variable in this round

Global orders for combustion engines for power generation reached about 96 GW in 2025, a significant increase from 57.4 GW in 2024. It is expected that under a neutral scenario, global demand for combustion engines will increase from 81.4 GW in 2026 to 99.0 GW in 2030; among them, US electricity demand will accelerate again, and AIDC will become an important marginal source of commercial electricity growth. Under conservative estimates, the total IT equipment capacity of US data centers will increase by about 114 GW from 2025 to 2030, corresponding to the cumulative demand for additional supporting power capacity of about 195 GW. Under an optimistic scenario, the increase in supporting capacity can reach about 300 GW. Gas engines, on the other hand, benefit from new applications such as AIDC, peak shaving, and balanced power supplies. Under a neutral scenario, demand increased from 15.0 GW to 28.2 GW, with a CAGR of about 17.1%.

Core OEMs have entered a new round of production expansion cycle, and there is a clear difference in the pace of supply release between different technology routes

Under a neutral scenario, global gas engine supply is expected to increase from 66 GW in 2026 to 98.5 GW in 2030, with a CAGR of about 10.5%. The new supply is mainly due to increased production from leading manufacturers such as GeverNova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Power. The reignition manufacturing chain is long and production capacity release is relatively rigid; small combustion manufacturing and production expansion are more flexible, and the supply growth rate is faster than that of reignition; the gas engine supply chain is more fragmented, and global supply is expected to increase from 15.0 GW to 27.4 GW under a neutral scenario.

The short-term gap between supply and demand for combustion engines is still prominent. Structurally, small combustion constraints are stronger, and gas engines maintain dynamic balance

Under a neutral scenario, the nominal global gas engine supply and demand gap gradually narrowed from 15.4 GW in 2026 to 0.5 GW in 2030. The short-term conflict was mainly concentrated in 2026-2027. With the release of new production capacity from leading OEMs, the pressure on supply and demand has gradually eased; despite the rapid expansion of small fuel combustion production, it is estimated that there will still be a nominal gap of about 4.7 GW in 2030 due to the rapid expansion of production capacity; gas engines are showing high demand and simultaneous expansion of supply, and the industry as a whole maintains a dynamic balance.

The industry boom has been transmitted from orders to revenue and profit, and product adaptation and capacity fulfillment have become the key to growth

GeverNova gas engine equipment backlog and slot reservation has been further increased from 100GW in 2026Q1 to 116GW in Q2, and plans to gradually increase the annual fuel engine output from 20GW in 2026 to 30GW in 2030; Siemens Energy Gas Services continues to accumulate high-quality backlogs, and the BakerHughes 2026Q2 IETRPO reached 37.1 billion US dollars, of which GTE/GTS respectively It reached $150/16.7 billion. Sales of Caterpillar's large reciprocating engines and solar combustion engines have also been driven by data center demand. Cummins natural gas generator sets have further switched from traditional backup scenarios to the main power supply after AIDC meters.

Risk warning: The growth in AIDC construction and electricity demand fell short of expectations, the supply and demand pattern was relaxed due to the expansion of OEM production exceeding expectations, the penetration rate of gas power generation after the AIDC table fell short of expectations, and changes in natural gas prices and energy policies