Minmetals Securities: Demand in major installed regions around the world is lackluster, PV's reverse internal roll guides the promotion of efficient BC technology

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Minmetals Securities released a research report saying that while demand is lackluster, the photovoltaic industry's supply-side clean-up and anti-domestic policies are being promoted, leading to high-quality production capacity premiums at home and abroad. At the same time, the incident of natural clearance of leading production capacity is worth paying attention to, driving the industry's supply and demand environment to improve, and the valuation and performance of related companies to be repaired. As far as the industry is concerned, there are currently no conditions for large-scale deployment of BC production capacity. The coexistence of multiple crystalline silicon routes should be a mid-term industry scenario, strengthening the layout of laminated products or a breakthrough plan.

Minmetals Securities's main views are as follows:

Demand is lackluster in major installed regions around the world

After the full entry of new energy sources into the Chinese market, electricity price pressure continued. PV settlement prices in most provinces were lower than the coal-fired benchmark price and electricity cost range. The project economy was poor. 2026H1 PV installation was not ideal, and demand declined in stages; demand in the US market declined under the influence of OBBBA, especially in the household market, and industry growth slowed; major European countries such as Germany, France, and the Netherlands gradually abolished subsidies, and factors such as grid congestion and negative electricity prices became important reasons limiting the future installation rate of PV installations. It is also slowing down. The growth rate in major PV installed regions is not ideal, and industry demand is relatively lackluster in the short to medium term.

Passively push the industry to clear supply

The main industry chain of the industry lost money for 11 consecutive quarters, with high polysilicon inventories and continuous pressure on industrial chain prices. Companies lost serious blood when the operating rate of the industry was low. Production capacity at the end was already cleared naturally. Only the concentration of the industry was basically stable. It was not until 2026 that a small number of mergers and acquisitions of leading companies occurred. Naturally, clearness initially appeared. Anti-internal scrutiny continues to advance. Strong standards lead the high-quality development of the industry through “quality and energy efficiency” methods: 1) quality: price monitoring+quality spot checks form a bottom line constraint, prevent extreme low price competition, and make mandatory requirements for component safety and nameplate labeling; 2) can: raise the efficiency threshold, make inefficient production capacity impossible to produce and sell, and guide efficient products to be promoted in the market; 3) Efficiency: Setting energy consumption standards, so that old production lines with high energy consumption face rising compliance costs or are forced to shut down. BC technology is greatly supported, and components can easily meet Level 1 standards.

Increased BC penetration rate and diversified technology development

The share of BC modules winning bids in China continues to rise. At home and abroad, there is a premium for TOPCON components. At the same time, technology is also converging and further differentiating. From chip lithography and laser solutions to becoming mainstream, laser solutions have become mainstream, and post-printing lithography has appeared. 26Q4 to 27Q1 is worth paying attention to its cost, yield, and efficiency progress. BC's patent competition has also entered the public eye. In the current context of weak domestic demand and global trade conflicts and the global layout of PV manufacturing capacity, patent requirements will become more important.

Risk warning: 1. The implementation of anti-domestic policies fell short of expectations, and internal industry volumes continued; 2. Industry demand fell short of expectations, and competition intensity continued to increase; 3. Trade frictions intensified, and domestic exports were blocked, leading to increased oversupply; 4. The expansion of foreign production capacity exceeded expectations, leading to increased domestic production capacity competition.