Is Tesla (TSLA.US) the most expensive model coming? Roadster is about to be released, but the options market is “watching indifferently”

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Tesla (TSLA.US) cars have always been expensive, and the Roadster, which the company will release on October 1, is likely to become its most expensive model so far if the 50,000 US dollar reservation fee is used as a reference. However, Tesla's options aren't particularly expensive: the one-month implied volatility is around 36%. Although catalysts such as the Roadster release are approaching, and October is usually a month with higher than average volatility, this indicator is still far below average.

Roadster scheduled for October 1: $50,000 deposit first, delivery suspense unresolved

The launch of Cybercab in early September was not approved by analysts. In particular, Wells Fargo analysts pointed out that the autonomous taxi service was facing “implementation issues.” However, since then, Tesla's stock price has gradually recovered its lost ground. Now, as Roadster orders open again and the one-month option premium is close to the low end of the range, there are various signs that the stock is expected to break through the pre-launch level of Cybercab, but if Roadster's listing also fails to meet investors' expectations, there are certain risks.

The Roadster sports car will be officially unveiled on October 1 at SpaceX's test site in McGregor, Texas. The reservation process is not easy: you must first pay a refundable deposit of $5,000 by credit card, then remit $45,000 within 10 days, and the reservation is only completed once the remittance is received. Currently, reservations are also open in Canada and China. Tesla said that the press conference will finally announce the Roadster's sales price, specifications, and production targets.

The questioner pointed out that the company also collected the same deposit of $50,000 in 2017, but has repeatedly missed delivery dates since then. However, the decision to reopen pre-orders two weeks before the press conference itself sends a signal — the company won't ask customers to pay $50,000 upfront for an embarrassing car, at least that's what people hope. The Cybertruck press conference was indeed a bit embarrassing: the chief engineer smashed the car window while demonstrating that it was “indestructible.”

Cybercab's shadow is exaggerated: the long-term logic of driverless driving has not changed

Michael Khouw, co-founder and chief strategist of the options analysis platform OpenInterest.pro, believes that the market's previous negative reaction to Cybercab after its release was excessive. When Cybercab debuted in Austin on September 3, it did disappoint some investors; but considering regulatory hurdles and other practical issues, it was unrealistic to expect immediate disruption as soon as it was released.

Khouw stressed that driverless online car-hailing will eventually become part of the way people travel. The real critical question for the next few years is not whether Tesla's first two-seater car will be mature enough and usable on the first day of its release, but rather which companies can produce hundreds of thousands or even millions of autonomous vehicles at commercially viable costs and actually get them on the road. Globally, few companies have proven their ability to design, manufacture, and distribute complex consumer-grade hardware on such a large scale. Tesla is one of them.

For Tesla, bumps in the early stages seemed to be the norm, and since then it has proven that it can do what only a few companies outside of China can do.

Valuation disputes: traditional frameworks are difficult to apply; buying at a premium is the future

The fairest criticism of Tesla is actually not an implementation issue of novel car technology, but rather a valuation. If Tesla is measured by the standards of traditional car companies, and even Uber or Lyft is used as a reference for the autonomous taxi industry, this criticism seems reasonable; judging from the current level of profit, its valuation multiples are difficult to hold. Tesla expects a price-earnings ratio of 213 times, Uber 22 times, and Ford 7 times.

But it's not for nothing that the market has never assessed Tesla's value in the traditional way. The company and its founders have done things many times that most people think would be impossible or even ridiculous: massively profitable electric vehicles, charging networks now connected to other companies, grid-grade energy storage, and reusable rockets developed by SpaceX. A more appropriate perspective is that Tesla is a technology company with complex consumer engineering and manufacturing technology that is rare and difficult to obtain. Seen from this perspective, the premium is not so much a bubble as a reasonable valuation of its unique advantages in autonomous driving, robotics, and energy, which few other companies can actually own.

Trading strategy: Multiple catalysts are approaching, and bullish spreads are better than buying Call directly

The Semi truck press conference will be held on September 24, and the Roadster sports car will be unveiled on October 1. Following the release of the third quarter delivery data, it seems that Tesla's one-month option should be boosted, but this is not the case. The 30-day implied volatility is about 41%, which is an absolute high value for a large company, but close to the bottom of Tesla's stock price fluctuation range over the past year. For a stock that is often influenced by news and fluctuates 5%, such a price is a reasonable price to pay for an opportunity to rise.

Instead of buying a call option directly, Khouw suggests using a call option spread strategy, which can reduce option fee expenses and reduce the risk caused by market fluctuations after the incident occurred. The 380/440 call option spread strategy, which expires on October 30, covers the Roadster sports car launch, delivery reports, and upcoming earnings reports.