$15.6 billion BTC options expire, $70,000 becomes the focus of long and short

According to Woofun AI, the Deribit platform will expire in a concentration of Bitcoin options worth 15.6 billion US dollars on Friday September 25. Currently, the Bitcoin transaction price is hovering around $85,000. The settlement of this huge nominal contract value is triggering an in-depth review of the derivatives position structure in the market.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the total number of open contracts involved in this expiration was about 182,000 bitcoins, with call options dominating 106,200, while put options were 75,900, and the bearish/bullish ratio remained at 0.71. $70,000 became the core battleground for long and short games. At this price, the call option involved 8,705 bitcoins, and the put option involved 7,653, all of which were the largest holdings in all directions.

Additionally, $90,000 and $100,000 have attracted a large number of bullish positions, while $60,000 and $75,000 are the main distribution areas for put options. Notably, Deribit estimates that the maximum loss point is at $76,000, meaning that most options will return to zero at this price, but this only reflects position distribution rather than price predictions. Hedging operations carried out by options brokers to manage risk exposure may also influence short-term trends by trading Bitcoin.

This option expiration was not an isolated event; it occurred on the same day as the release of US durable goods order data and the University of Michigan's September Final Consumer Sentiment Index. Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME.US) will also be settled on the same day, and the combination of multiple market events may amplify fluctuations.

The more critical variable is the macro context. The Federal Reserve raised the target interest rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4.00% on September 16 due to rising inflation. This policy shift made interest rate trend expectations a core factor affecting market liquidity and investors' interest in risk-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin.

As contracts expire, some hedging transactions will disappear or move to longer-term contracts, and market dynamics will change accordingly. Interest rate trends are expected to continue to dominate the macro-liquidity environment, thereby reshaping investors' allocation logic for Bitcoin. Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the derivatives market and macroeconomic policies resonated with a key stress test on the risk asset pricing mechanism.