CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that the current global macro situation has “five uncertainties and five determinations,” which are mainly affected by the AI technology revolution, international currency changes, and geographical conflicts. The core is a centralized mapping of productivity changes and production relationship adjustments at the global level. The “five uncertainties” are: first, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path is uncertain; second, it is uncertain whether advanced economies' high debt can continue; third, the yen exchange rate and global arbitrage mechanism are uncertain; fourth, the geographical impact of crude oil and supply security is uncertain; and fifth, the long-term global macroeconomic impact of the AI era is uncertain. The “five determinations” are: first, the inflationary rigidity of developed economies is determined; second, the rise in yield due to debt pressure and inflation in developed economies is determined; third, China's high import and export growth and manufacturing upgrading are determined; fourth, it is certain that China maintains policy strength, high-quality development, and technological progress; and fifth, RMB asset revaluation and investment in China are determined.

CITIC Construction Investment pointed out that the current global macro situation has “five uncertainties and five determinations,” which are mainly affected by the AI technology revolution, international currency changes, and geographical conflicts. The core is a centralized mapping of productivity changes and production relationship adjustments at the global level. The “five uncertainties” are: first, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path is uncertain; second, it is uncertain whether advanced economies' high debt can continue; third, the yen exchange rate and global arbitrage mechanism are uncertain; fourth, the geographical impact of crude oil and supply security is uncertain; and fifth, the long-term global macroeconomic impact of the AI era is uncertain. The “five determinations” are: first, the inflationary rigidity of developed economies is determined; second, the rise in yield due to debt pressure and inflation in developed economies is determined; third, China's high import and export growth and manufacturing upgrading are determined; fourth, it is certain that China maintains policy strength, high-quality development, and technological progress; and fifth, RMB asset revaluation and investment in China are determined.